As the war in Gaza approaches the six-month mark, and in light of a significant moderation of the military effort, a question is emerging that is central to the functioning of the State of Israel given the multidimensional crisis enveloping it: Is it appropriate to pursue early national elections?
The first instinct is to dismiss this possibility. After all, election campaigns require vying political camps and identity groups to distinguish themselves, often while slinging mud at the “other.” On the face of it, a political contest would undermine social solidarity, which is an essential element of our collective ability to confront our enemy. Calling national elections now would likely signal the collapse of the “Together We Will Win” ethos. Even so, there is solid justification for immediately turning to elections.
We do not know if we are nearing the end of the war (against Hamas), or if the events of the last six months are only a first, preliminary round of the battle that awaits us, against Hezbollah, and perhaps others seeking our destruction. Can we expect a period of relative calm, while managing targeted operations in the Gaza Strip – a routine security mission, or are we headed for a serious escalation against Hezbollah?
A recent survey by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) shows that a large majority (63%) of Israelis believe that Israel should launch a campaign in the North, either immediately (29%) or after gaining complete control of the Gaza Strip (34%). It is evident that there is widespread distrust in a political solution and considering that the communities in the North have been displaced for almost half a year, with all its stinging real and symbolic implications, Israelis want decisive action.
If this preference is realized, it is predicted that Israel will endure a daily barrage of about 3,000 missiles, some of them massive and precision guided, for an extended period of time. In this case, Israel will face a magnitude of damage it has never known before. It will require an enormity of mental and physical strength well beyond what the current generation has experienced.
We must ready ourselves for this not just in the obvious context of military preparation and civil defense, but also in terms of national resilience. In my view, this is the most crucial background for considering the question of moving to elections.
Currently, public confidence in the prime minister and the government is extremely low: 30%-35%. In other words, two-thirds of Israelis do not trust the supreme command charged with managing the difficult campaign that may befall us. This is a decisive figure that cannot be ignored.
The decision whether to launch a proactive war in the North or to avoid one is pivotal for our national existence, and its consequences are immense. Therefore, it must be made in a way that allows a large majority of the public – whether they support the decision or oppose it – to feel that it has a substantive basis. When two-thirds of Israelis do not trust the current leadership, there is significant concern that they will have no confidence in the decision the leadership makes.
This is not a call for ousting the current political echelon, but rather a call for a process that will ultimately elect leadership that has the public’s trust at this critical moment. Although elections were held not long ago – only a quarter of the Knesset term allotted by law has passed – the dramatic change in our national circumstances necessitates an immediate return to the ballot box.
Ten months on the brink of civil war; the failures of the security establishment and the IDF that preceded the massacre, rape and abduction of civilians, and enabled a severe national humiliation; a long and protracted bloody war; and a tsunami of anti-Israel (partly antisemitic) sentiment around the world that is gaining traction even among our closest allies.
This is a completely different reality than the one that accompanied the last round of elections in November 2022, and therefore a return to the people is required.
Elections will grant legitimacy to whoever wins
THE ELECTIONS will, it can be assumed, revolve around the question of who is worthy of leading us through one of the most challenging chapters of the Zionist enterprise. It is possible that the current regime will win again, thus legitimizing its leadership. And it’s possible that it will be replaced. Reason suggests that the losing side will not accept defeat gracefully. The disputes will not disappear. But new elections will make it clear to whom the majority grants its support and trust, and confer public legitimacy, not only formal but also moral, for making decisions that will require great sacrifice from all of us. Elections now are essential to preparing the state and its society for a potentially dire confrontation.
A leadership that gains the trust of the electorate at this time will be better equipped to carry out the policies in which the public is interested. At the moment, the international community, including the Biden administration, is drawing a distinction between the prime minister, who they perceive as motivated by personal interests, and the Israeli people. Israel should go to elections not because US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York urges us to do so, but because the post-election leadership will be legitimately recognized, both internally and externally, as representing the national interests of the State of Israel as its citizens understand them.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is wrong to liken Israeli society to a spider’s web that will disintegrate when pressure is applied. He interprets Israelis’ lack of trust in their leadership in wartime as a symptom of weakness. Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar hangs his hopes on the internal pressure to release the hostages “at any price,” and on the international pressure against Netanyahu. A general election that will lead to the establishment of a government enjoying new or renewed public trust, which will be able to actualize the Israeli public’s desire for the clear defeat of its enemy, will curb the aggressive appetites of these two tyrants and their backers.
According to the law, elections can be held within 90 days and a governing coalition can be formed immediately after, if the parties are willing. These will be 90 days of Israeli arm wrestling, but this is a price we must pay if we want to prepare Israel for what is to come.
The writer is president of the Jewish People Policy Institute, and a professor (emeritus) of law at Bar-Ilan University.