Israel might not be saying it, but based on the last few weeks, the war in Gaza is stuck.
On the political front, Gideon Sa’ar has pulled out of the government and called for elections while Benny Gantz is still in the government and calling for elections. Streets are once again being blocked in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem by opponents of the government and the families of the hostages, and the head of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) – yes, the same one who failed on October 7 – is warning of political violence.
At the same time in Gaza, the IDF is not really moving anywhere. On the one hand, there is sporadic fighting and Israeli troops are still facing resistance in places like Khan Yunis and in northern Gaza. But, for how much longer does it plan to stay in place especially when the world’s patience has completely run out?
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi can apologize profusely for the accidental killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers this week, but when the president of the United States says that he is “outraged” and that the strike was not a “stand-alone incident,” the international support that might have been left for Israel is now pretty much gone.
And then there is Rafah, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed Israel will enter even at the cost of an even greater crisis with the United States. Has Israel done anything to move closer toward an operation? Not exactly, since no Palestinians have yet been ordered to evacuate Rafah where they fled to when they were forced out of the northern part of the Strip.
In addition, according to various media reports, a meeting this week between top Israeli and American officials regarding Rafah did not exactly end the way Israel had hoped. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the Israelis that soon a famine will be declared in Gaza and that Israel will have the notoriety of being known for causing the third famine of the 21st century. Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also apparently dismissed Israeli claims that it will only take four weeks to evacuate the more than one million displaced Palestinians residing in the Rafah area. The Americans think it will take closer to four months.
It hurts to say this, but Israel is stuck. On the one hand, if it wanted to go into Rafah it would have started the evacuation weeks ago. On the other hand, the reason it hasn’t done so yet is partially since it has wants to give the hostage talks in Cairo and Doha a chance since it would not be smart to begin a mass evacuation and an operation in Rafah only to have to stop everything because there is a ceasefire as part of a hostage deal.
FURTHER, THERE is an argument to be made that maybe mass evacuation orders and the beginning of an operation in Rafah would actually help advance a hostage deal. Hamas, according to the Israeli negotiators, is holding up the talks with exaggerated demands. If Yahya Sinwar feels that Israel is serious about entering Rafah – where he might be hiding – maybe he will ease his opposition to a deal.
Difficult questions need to be asked
The problem is that when Sinwar hears Gantz calling for an early election and that tens of thousands of people are taking to the streets opposite Netanyahu’s home calling for his resignation, he does not exactly tremble in fear. On the contrary, it likely reinforces the feeling that he already has – that if he waits just a bit longer, he can actually survive this war and lead Hamas to rule the Gaza Strip once again.
Six months into this war, it is time to ask some difficult questions. The arguments in favor of an operation in Rafah make sense but with every day that passes it becomes harder to make the case especially in light of the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The same can be asked about the protests right now against Netanyahu as well as Gantz’s call for early elections. Is now really the time for all of that? And specifically regarding Gantz: If he wants early elections, then why does he remain inside the coalition?
The answer is obvious. He knows that the moment he pulls out, his party will dip in the polls so he remains inside even though he is openly calling for the same government of which he is part to collapse. Makes sense, right? Not exactly.
Israel’s challenges are numerous. The world’s patience for Israel’s operation had run out even before the killing of the aid workers; Israeli public frustration is peaking to the point soon that the protests will be unstoppable; and the coalition appears to be slowly collapsing.
Can Israel extricate itself from this quagmire? Not easily, and probably not under the current government. An early election is part of the answer but that alone will not solve Israel’s challenges and anyone who thinks so is fooling themselves. Hamas will see an early election as a victory and it will not be wrong.
Continuing to wage a war during an election campaign and even expanding it with an operation in Rafah will not be accepted so easily by the Israeli people and it will be hard to do. Just look back to 1981 when prime minister Menachem Begin ordered a strike against Iraq’s nuclear reactor three weeks before a national election. The destruction of the reactor – which was viewed as an existential threat by Israel – had almost unanimous support, but that didn’t stop some people from accusing Begin of using the reactor strike to secure his reelection.
In addition, does anyone really think that Senator Chuck Schumer will suddenly stop calling for Netanyahu to be replaced if he wins the next election? And what will the Brothers in Arms protesters do if Netanyahu wins? Will they too suddenly disband and stop their protests against the Likud leader? On the one hand, they should. The Israeli people will have spoken. But sadly, I think we know the real answer.
Ending the war now and continuing to carry out pinpointed strikes against Hamas – something Israel will anyhow need to do even after an operation in Rafah – has its merits, as does the launching of an operation to complete the dismantling of Hamas’s remaining battalions in Rafah. And, of course, there are the hostages who get lost deeper and deeper in Hamas tunnels every day they are not brought home.
It is time to make some decisions.
The writer is a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) and a former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post.