There was something perplexing about President Joe Biden’s last “Don’t” on Saturday, directed ostensibly at the Islamic Republic of Iran. At that point, President Biden and everyone around him knew that Iran was already preparing its unprecedented attack on the State of Israel. The Iranians had clearly ignored all of his other repeated warnings, and this one would be similarly disregarded.
More than likely, however, considering it in the cold light of the day after, Biden’s “Don’t” was aimed at the State of Israel.
Israel has seen this show before when an American president demands that the Jewish State not react when a regional enemy attacks it with missiles. During the First Gulf War in 1991, prime minister Yitzhak Shamir acceded to the demands made by president George H. W. Bush not to retaliate to Saddam Hussein’s incessant Scud missile attacks on Israel.
However, the difference between now and then is night and day.
In 1991, the Americans did not just say “Don’t,” they said, “Leave it to us,” and although they didn’t get rid of Saddam immediately, they did deal him a heavy blow which Bush’s son would finish off during his tenure, just over a decade later.
Currently, the United States appears to be overruling an Israeli strike against Iran without, in exchange, giving the Jewish state any reason to believe it will take care of the response itself. This took place toward the end of the Cold War as the US was emerging victorious. The Middle East’s regional powers could no longer continue their double game, playing the Soviets and the Americans off against each other. There was only one game in town, and it was the US, so the majority of the region joined in openly – or close to openly – with the war against Iraq. Israel’s attack on Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 ensured that it was not even close to becoming a nuclear power. Iraq did not pose the type of regional or global threat the Islamic Republic of Iran demonstrates today.
Biden's statement risks setting the region ablaze
President Biden’s “Don’t” to Israel risks further inflaming the region and leading to greater instability.
Reportedly, Biden has said that Israel should accept the “win” of shooting down almost all of the hundreds of suicide drones and missiles aimed at it. However, this is not a win in any military playbook and especially not in the Middle East.
The Middle East has traditionally shifted toward the “strong horse” [an expression of power culled from Osama bin Laden’s assertion that “When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse] in the region.
During World War I, the Middle East sided with the Ottomans until it saw the Allies winning and shifted towards them. In World War II, there were many who made pacts with the Nazis until late in the war, when they switched sides once again. During the Cold War, many in the region were bought and armed by the Soviets, but as the USSR began to crumble and the Americans emerged victorious, they switched towards the West. When they saw a strong Israel supported by the US, they made peace and normalized relations with the Jewish State because they saw it as the “strong horse.”
Today, Iran has built a radical terrorist empire stretching through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. This is a major threat to the pragmatic Sunni nations in the region. In the last couple of years, after intense pressure on Iran, the foot has been taken off the gas. Diplomacy has been preferred over threats, and these pragmatic nations have been kept at arm’s length.
Nature abhors a vacuum, as the saying goes, and in came Russia and China to the Middle East. Suddenly, the Saudis were publicly trying to mend relations with their arch foes in Tehran, midwifed by Beijing. This should have been a message to the West that the Middle East was shifting once again.
The extremists and terror proxies were heartened and rewarded by an emboldened Iran, and we have seen some of its devastating effects since October 7: The Hamas massacre of 1,200 and kidnapping of over 240 Israelis and others, and the incessant bombing of our North by Hezbollah and South by the Houthis. Now that Iran has brazenly removed the masks of its proxies and attacked the Jewish State openly and shamelessly, Israel has no choice but to face the Islamic Republic and defeat it.
There is no “win” in defense, only in offense.
The State of Israel must strike back and reel in the Ayatollah’s neck. It must deliver a blow that will ensure it is heard in Tehran, Beirut, Damascus, and Sana’a, and in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Manama. It must be understood and appreciated in Washington, London, Paris, and across the West.
The State of Israel has to simply apply enough military and other pressure to break Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s will to fight.
There are two clear visions of the region from this moment on.
There is one where an emboldened Iran keeps firing at Israel without a response from the Jewish State. This fires up the proxies into believing that Israel’s end is near. It ensures that the pragmatic Sunni nations shift their allegiances from the West towards the ascendant Iran and its backers in Moscow and Beijing. It becomes a nuclear power with the ability to threaten on a global scale.
The other is where Israel regains its spirit of 1948, 1967, and even 1973, and takes care of its interests. It goes alone if it has to, forcing Iran to retreat and signifying a defeat for the regime. The Sunni nations understand that they have backed the right “strong horse” and will choose full regional normalization with Israel, bringing peace, security, and prosperity to the entire region.
The second vision is the one Washington should subscribe to and back the Jewish State to the hilt.
President Biden should be telling the Israelis, “Do!”
The writer is the director of the Middle East Forum, Israel office.