According to polls, the majority of both Israeli and American voters support an IDF operation in Rafah, the final Hamas stronghold in Gaza, where the IDF believes Hamas is holding hostages taken captive by the terrorist organization on October 7. However, the White House is trying to tie Jerusalem’s hands despite Hamas’s intransigence and is missing a unique opportunity to demonstrate the strong and principled leadership that most Americans want.
Israel told Hamas on May 3 that the terror organization has one week to respond to Israel’s most comprehensive offer to date. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called it “extraordinarily generous.”
Hamas has previously rejected several consecutive deals, which raises the question of whether Hamas has any interest in a ceasefire or is simply playing for time.
Israel itself has reservations about a ceasefire, which could affect the war momentum and release hundreds of imprisoned terrorists, but is prepared to go to almost any length to secure the release of the 132 remaining hostages, who include women, children, and US citizens.
Jerusalem has delayed the Rafah operation for months to allow for US-shepherded negotiations, while dozens of Israeli hostages have been killed in captivity in Gaza. But Jerusalem’s patience with the months of fruitless negotiations may have finally run out.
According to reports, if Hamas turns this deal down, the IDF will begin the evacuation of Rafah in advance of a major ground operation in the city.
Blinken comments on Rafah operation
On May 1, Blinken told NBC that the administration “cannot and will not support a major military operation in Rafah absent a clear, credible plan to protect civilians. We’ve not seen such a plan.” In other words, irrespective of Washington’s ability to negotiate a ceasefire or a return of hostages, the administration won’t back Israel in the next phase of the war.
Rafah is the southernmost Gazan town and sits along the border with Egypt. The strip of land that runs along the Egypt-Gaza border is known as the Philadelphi Corridor, where Hamas has built a network of tunnels to smuggle in the majority of its impressive arsenal, which it has used to attack Israel on and after October 7.
Rafah is also the last stronghold of Hamas fighters, where several thousand terrorists are hiding among over a million internally displaced people in the city. To end the war, the IDF must enter Rafah, destroy the remaining Hamas battalions, and shut down the tunnel networks under the Philadelphi Corridor.
ON APRIL 22, The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel is closely coordinating with the US, Egypt, and the UAE on an operational plan to move large numbers of Gazans out of Rafah and to humanitarian areas that will have shelter, food, and medical facilities.
According to February reports, Israel presented a plan to officials in Cairo that detailed 15 separate humanitarian camps, each with 25,000 shelters. Recent satellite images of the enclave shows a growing number of new structures erected in central Gaza.
Despite Blinken’s claims that he has seen no credible plan for the safe evacuation of Rafah’s civilians, Israeli sources have told me a plan that involves a phased evacuation of several hundred thousand internally displaced people has been shared with Washington. Some Gazans will go to the new humanitarian zones being constructed in central Gaza; others will be allowed to return to the north.
The sticking point appears to be the timing of the operation. Sources with knowledge of recent conversations between Washington and Jerusalem say the Netanyahu government estimates that the evacuation will take a matter of weeks. But the White House fears that the evacuation will take months. If so, the timing of the operation and the battle for Rafah will extend into the US election season.
With a presidential election looming in November, the White House is watching President Joe Biden’s polling numbers with increasing concern. While polling consistently demonstrates that the vast majority of US voters are more focused on domestic issues than anything happening in the Middle East, Americans are also highly concerned about poor leadership. Images on the evening news of war in the Middle East alongside violent and chaotic campus protests at home are not optimal during an election year.
Jerusalem will likely pursue a decisive victory over Hamas with little regard for the timing of US elections. Rather than working around the political calendar, Biden should seize the opportunity to align with Jerusalem and back the Rafah operation while providing maximum support to Gazan civilians.
Americans want strong leadership that aligns with our values. If Biden can articulate the moral case for backing Israel, defeating Hamas, and bringing hostages home, it may help – not harm – his prospects in November.
The writer is the senior director of the Israel Program and the FDD National Security Network at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow her on X at @EKrivine.