The snap elections decided upon by President Emmanuel Macron after the poor results in the European elections are a major shock for France and causing major turmoil.
There are three potential outcomes to these elections –none of them are reassuring for French Jews:
• Victory for the far Right with the Rassemblement National (RN)
• The victory of a left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front • The absence of any stable majority
A new far Right?
Marine le Pen has wanted to normalize her party since taking it over in 2011, and antisemitism was both an imperative and a very good way to achieve this goal.
It would actually be wrong to deem today’s Rassemblement National as the exact equivalent of the Front National of Marine’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. In many ways, the RN is going through a normalization process that other parties in Europe went through, like the Italian Social Movement (MSI) in Italy. Antisemitism is non-existent in the Rassemblement national’s platform, and it has also turned into a pro-Israel party, maybe the most pro-Israel party in France.
Despite that, many French Jews, and the major Jewish institutions, remain wary of a party that never broke up officially with its past nor denounced its founders; many of its top members have some antisemitic tendencies.
Beyond that, the party is seen as not equipped to handle major issues like the economy or foreign policy.
The very notion of an extremist party worries Jew who are wary of the turmoil and unrest that such power would mean, on top of lack of readiness of its leaders who have never served in any governmental capacity.
The arrival of a far-right party could also create some massive demonstrations, with the possible eruption of political violence fomented by the far Left, for the first time in decades. Some are also fearing that some fringe far-right antisemitism may surge again, emboldened by the victory of the RN.
The antisemitic threat may not come directly from the far Right, but it has not disappeared. It has just moved in some ways to the other extreme of the political spectrum.
A left-wing coalition led by an extremist party
92% of French Jews are now saying that the far-left party La France Insoumise (LFI) is the most antisemitic party in France. This is a major development, which explains why French Jews are so worried over the second scenario – the victory of the Left in the elections.
New Front Populaire is an alliance where LFI is the dominant element. It was founded by Jean-Luc Melenchon, an ex-socialist, friendly with former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, fascinated by strongmen like former Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez or Cuba’s Fidel Castro, and more likely to criticize US President Joe Biden than Russia’s President Vladimir Putin or China’s President Xi Jinping.
In other words, La France Insoumise (LFI) is led by a would-be strong man, who likes to be victimized and blame many of the issues he or France is facing on “them,” the elites, and “the powerful.” Sometimes he cannot hide that he is talking about the Jews.
Melenchon’s cynicism and unhealthy obsession with the Jews have led him, and thereby his party that he controls entirely, to make Gaza and the “genocide” of the Palestinians the major topic during the last European election. In a country where antisemitic acts have multiplied tenfold since October 7, a choice of spokespeople and words that were sometimes outright antisemitic, this political strategy has infuriated Jews who are now wary of this party.
What is also troubling Jews, beyond its antisemitism, is that LFI would probably, as the leader of a left-wing government, take radical measures out of ideology, without thinking about the consequences. Since Melenchon is a strongman, it is unclear that all freedoms would be truly respected tomorrow. Knowing his background, it is possible to imagine that the failures would be blamed on others: the central bankers, the financial markets, and even possibly the Jewish lobby, which he has blamed in many instances – though being careful not to call it as such.
The left-wing coalition is aware of Melenchon’s toxicity and is saying that Melenchon would not be prime minister if the NFP were to win the elections, but if LFI had the most seats, which is likely, he would be the likely choice.
In this case, knowing Melenchon’s inclination for strong leaders, and because the far-right could react violently in the streets, violence in the streets and agitation could take place quickly.
The left wing’s arrival to power, if LFI is the dominant player, worries Jews not only because of its antisemitism but because of the chaos this would cause. In that, they are actually at the forefront of what their fellow non-Jewish citizens think, and explains why the third scenario is not a good one either.
A France that cannot be governed?
Neither the NPF nor the RN will likely get a stable parliamentary majority, which leads to the likeliest outcome: the absence of a clear majority in the French parliament. This will cause some major political and social instability, which worries not only a lot of French people but also the business community and foreign investors.
This would be unprecedented in the Fifth Republic, founded by De Gaulle, precisely to avoid instability that caused many problems for France in the Third and Fourth Republics.
If that were to materialize, it would be almost impossible to have any budgets passed, and planning for anything would become virtually impossible, hence penalizing France gravely on all fronts, including foreign policy.
WHAT THE three outcomes have in common is that in each of these scenarios, there could be a major wave of uncertainty and instability in France, with possible massive demonstrations, strikes, or even riots. If a power is deemed as extreme, or illegitimate, or unstable, then the street takes over and the authority of the power is weakened.
Instability means that at some point the desire for a strong man or a strong woman emerges, and with them the programmed end of democratic institutions and checks and balances that have always been the best protections for Jews. Their absence has made possible the worst possible disasters in their history, be in Tsarist Russia, Nazi Germany, or some Arab countries.
Macron has opened a Pandora’s box that leaves French citizens disoriented, worried, and angry. French Jews, always the canaries in the mine, are particularly exposed to instability and turmoil, which could well take place following the president’s risky and irresponsible bet.
The writer is a correspondent in the US of Cahiers Bernard Lazare, a magazine based in Paris aimed at French Jews.