The October 7 catastrophe shattered several deeply rooted security assumptions.
The first was that Israel’s enemies were deterred, knowing they would be pummeled by Israel’s superior might if they attacked.
The second was that the country could rely on a small, technologically smart army instead of the larger forces of the past, since hi-tech solutions could address many of the challenges previously handled by soldiers. For instance, billion-dollar walls and state-of-the-art sensors could effectively secure the border without the need for as many troops.
The third assumption was that Israel was positioned, thanks to generous US military aid, to “deter and defend itself, by itself, against any threat or possible combination of threats.” That phrase – an Ariel Sharon mantra – was incorporated into a letter then-US president George Bush wrote to Sharon in 2004, paving the way for Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza.
Israelis awoke on October 8, however, to the devastating realization that the enemy was not deterred, that a small, hi-tech army cannot do the job of defending the country, and that Israel is not able to protect itself, by itself, against any threat or combination thereof.
What was perhaps most eye-opening about this realization was the last element: that Israel cannot alone deter all enemies or defend the homeland, and that it needs help – especially American help. Even more startling is that the type of US help required was not only the dispatch of aircraft carriers to the Eastern Mediterranean to deter an all-out Iranian and Hezbollah offensive but also the reliance on the US for the basics needed to wage a war: bombs, shells, and even bullets.
It is understandable that a country the size of Israel lacks the industrial capacity to be completely self-sufficient and produce the next-generation war platforms it needs, and that those will have to be bought from the US. In this regard, the US approval on Tuesday of a $20 billion arms sale, including 50 F-15 fighter jets, is very welcome and greatly appreciated. However, long-term contracts for significant weapons platforms will not be filled for years.
October 7 revealed that Israel was reliant on the US not only for the major platforms but also for bread-and-butter ordnance such as mortar and tank shells, 500- and 1,000-pound bombs, and even rifles – arms that Israel does have the capacity to produce, but because of a variety of reasons, opted to parcel out to others.
Changes that must occur
Due to the collapse of the three key security assumptions – deterrence, a small, smart army, and the ability to stand alone – changes have begun to occur. First, there is now a much greater realization that deterrence does not work when dealing with a terrorist organization, and that dismantling their capabilities is necessary to prevent their attacks.
The second significant change is that the army needs more soldiers – a realization that is leading to the move now to get more haredim into uniform.
The third change involves increasing munitions independence by locally producing and manufacturing certain armaments and ordnance the army needs, thereby reducing reliance on the US.
In December, the Defense Ministry’s procurement division launched a local tender to purchase tens of thousands of assault rifles to replace the US-made M4. It also explored establishing the first-ever local production line of one-ton bombs, a type of bomb whose delivery from the US was recently delayed.
Israel Hayom reported on Tuesday that Israel had given the go-ahead to establish this production line and is also broadening domestic production of other arms, such as tank ammunition and 155-mm. artillery shells.
Defense Ministry Director-General Eyal Zamir was quoted as describing this as a “large-scale strategic move,” saying: “We are investing and will continue to invest tens of billions in building infrastructure and capabilities... to solidify production independence.”
That is a welcome development. Although Israel cannot build all its own significant weapons platforms, it can significantly increase local production of some arms, thereby lessening its reliance on the US and reducing pressure some elements in the US might want to exert on Jerusalem by withholding those arms during wartime.