The much awaited Islamic Republic’s retaliation in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh seems to be already in progress! Sadly, this is something that is only visible to those familiar with the devious tactics of the Iranian regime.
I am familiar with these tactics and have spent years conveying the message that the Islamic Republic will stop at nothing to achieve its goals. Over the past year and a half, I have camped outside the Foreign Office of the United Kingdom in London, and I have addressed the Israeli Parliament and the US Congress, invited by the Middle East Forum, to deliver this crucial message.
The Iranian regime’s Supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in his speech after the assassination of Haniyeh, stated that the response will be blood vengeance against Israelis. Khamenei already knows that a large direct attack against Israel will lead to direct Israeli response in Iran that could destabilize his regime.
Therefore, he has opted for a more devious, tried-and-tested strategy, of seeding division within the Israeli population through ordering Hamas to murder six Israelis who were taken hostage during the October 7 attack.
The Iranian regime has, over the last 45 years, proven to be an expert in the strategy of “divide and conquer.” It has used this strategy, through its infiltrated agents, to create division within the numerous Iranian opposition groups abroad. All of which has resulted in the lack of an effective alternative to the Iranian regime in the eyes of the West.
Change will come if you welcome it
This lack of a viable opposition and the fear of a power vacuum, should the regime fall, is something the Western leaders have stated in their opposition to regime change in Iran. This ensures the survival of the Iranian regime – despite its lack of legitimacy within Iran and its tyrannical control and global extremist terrorist agenda.
THE DISCOVERY of the bodies of six Israeli hostages, one of whom held dual American-Israeli citizenship, has sparked global outrage. This act has been condemned worldwide, and may have seemingly weakened Hamas’s negotiation position. But in order to understand this act, we must realize that Hamas terrorists’ actions do not follow typical rational patterns, because they are not in control of their own decisions. They are simply proxies, and their behavioral patterns are determined by those who created and support them.
The death of Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran dealt such a severe blow to Khamenei, forcing him to immediately take a hard stance by threatening revenge with the keywords “blood vengeance.” This bold claim created unprecedented expectations among every member under Khamenei’s command, from Rafah to Tehran.
After the April 13 thwarted military attack by Khamenei against Israel, and particularly following the recent assault on Israel by the terrorist group Hezbollah, it became clear to everyone that, militarily, Khamenei is in no position to confront or strike Israel to the extent he has claimed. This weakness is well documented in a professional report published recently in the Associated Press. As a result, the Iranian regime has started to implement a Hybrid Warfare strategy.
This statement will become clearer when the situation on the ground and recent events are further analyzed. Now that Khamenei has no military means to strike Israel while his thirst for avenging Haniyeh has driven him to the brink of desperation, he has begun a new game, attempting to exact revenge with whatever inhumane tools he has at his disposal.
Hostages and propaganda: Iran's weapons
THE LEADER of Iran has only two means to harm Israel: first, the hostages – whom he knows Israel considers sacred to return, potentially turning this into a point of weakness– and second, the massive propaganda machine that he has built over the years with significant effort and resources. He has thus planned and executed his revenge using these two tools.
Khamenei aims to destroy Israel from within while avenging Haniyeh, ultimately achieving his goal of annihilating the Jewish state. To this end, he ordered Yahya Sinwar – who should be recognized as his most obedient soldier, not merely as the leader of a terrorist group – to torture six innocent civilian hostages, film them on camera in various ways, and then brutally execute them.
Once the Israeli army would discover the bodies, Khamenei only needed to wait for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opponents to speak out. Then, he would unleash his propaganda machine like gasoline on the fire, deepening societal divisions and eroding public trust in the Israeli government. This is a massive psychological war being orchestrated by the Iranian leader’s terrorist arm under his direct orders.
This retaliatory action by the Islamic Republic aims to destroy Israel from within, attempting not only to overthrow the Israeli government, but also to sever its strongest ally, the United States, from it.
The tactic appears to be effective, as protests in Israel over the government’s failure to free hostages have led to the brink of a general strike. Tensions rose after the bodies of six Israeli hostages were found in Gaza, sparking national outrage. Tens of thousands protested, accusing Netanyahu of inadequate efforts to secure the remaining hostages. The Histadrut, Israel’s largest labor union, called for a one-day strike, with Tel Aviv’s mayor also joining, criticizing the government for “abandoning” the hostages.
This is a well-known, recurring global behavioral pattern of Iran’s The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which attempts to exploit the capacities and resources available in democratic societies – designed for coexistence – as weapons to destroy those very societies. In Israel, this pattern manifests as a large-scale, orchestrated psychological war.
SINWAR, as a loyal soldier, is fully executing Khamenei’s orders and actively contributing to dismantling Israeli society in pursuit of the harsh revenge that the leader has promised. The combination of this psychological warfare with a global campaign of false propaganda ultimately seeks to create division both within Israeli society and between Israel and its allies, especially the United States.
The Iranian regime is well versed in its use of asymmetry in regard to the values of human life in the West versus its own views. While the life of each of Israel and the West’s citizens is cherished, the Iranian regime is willing to sacrifice thousands of its own people or ordinary Palestinians for its extremist agenda.
Israel must recognize that as long as it is focused on tackling the tentacles of the octopus of global terrorism, namely the Iranian Regime, it will always be vulnerable to such devious policies. The solution to this dilemma for Israel and its allies is to realize that they must deal with the head of the octopus, the evil regime of the Islamic Republic backing the proxies that are surrounding Israel, and the leaders of the Iranian regime and the IRGC. For as long as they remain in power, they will always try to encircle Israel with their extremist proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, and weaken it through their devious hybrid strategy.
The writer is among the leaders of the Iranian opposition in exile.