The assassination of Hamas’s political bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran has intensified brewing tensions, turning the broad Middle East region into a tinderbox waiting for a spark.
Amid this chaos, Iran has set its sights on a seemingly unlikely savior: India. But as Iran extends its hand to New Delhi, it must be asked: can, or will, India take it? More importantly, what happens if it does?
Iran, led by its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is at a crossroads. Pezeshkian’s ascent to power, marked by the untimely death of his predecessor Ebrahim Raisi, thrusts him into the eye of a storm that threatens to engulf the entire region. With Israel’s recent targeted strikes, eliminating figures like Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, and the ever-looming shadow of a broader war, Iran’s strategic calculus is more critical than ever.
Tehran’s latest diplomatic overture is directed toward India, a nation with the rare distinction of maintaining warm ties with both Israel and Iran. Iran’s ambassador to India, Iraj Elahi, has been vocal about his country’s expectations. He sees India, with its historical non-aligned stance and significant regional influence, as a potential mediator in the escalating conflict. But this outreach is more than just a call for diplomacy; it’s a strategic maneuver in a game where the stakes are as high as they have ever been.
Iran’s diplomatic gambit is not without merit. For years, Tehran has cultivated a relationship with New Delhi that goes beyond mere convenience. Economic collaborations, such as the new 10-year contract between India and Iran for the development of the Chabahar port, have laid the groundwork for a partnership that could now be leveraged for broader regional stability. But Iran’s current outreach has little to do with infrastructure and everything to do with survival.
By appealing to India, Iran aims to create a counterbalance to the influence of the United States and its allies in the Middle East. The logic is simple yet profound: If India, a nation respected by both Israel and Iran, can be persuaded to play a more active role, it might just tip the scales in favor of diplomacy over conflict.
INDIA’S POSITION is complicated by its deepening ties with the United States. The burgeoning Indo-US relationship, particularly in defense and strategic affairs, has inevitably drawn India closer to Israel, Washington’s steadfast ally. But India’s foreign policy has always been a balancing act, and nowhere is this more evident than in its approach to the Middle East.
The question
The question now is whether this balance can be maintained as the region teeters on the brink of war.
Iran’s close ties with both China and Russia, which have become increasingly assertive in the Middle East, add another layer of complexity. India’s relationships with Moscow and Beijing are intricate, and while its security concerns extend beyond its immediate vicinity, the influence of these powers could complicate India’s stance. As the conflict in Gaza threatens to widen, Iran’s alignment with China and Russia might make India wary of fully supporting Israel, given the potential for broader regional implications.
India, therefore, finds itself in a precarious position. While it has the diplomatic clout to influence outcomes in the Middle East, any move it makes could have far-reaching consequences. Siding too openly with Israel could strain its relations with Iran, and by extension, with Russia and China. Yet taking a stand against Israel would complicate its burgeoning partnership with the United States. This delicate balancing act has always been India’s hallmark, but the stakes have never been higher.
For Iran, the stakes are equally significant. By courting India, Tehran is not just seeking a mediator – it is attempting to reshape the regional power dynamics in its favor. Iran’s hope is that by involving India, it can prevent a full-scale regional war, one that would likely drag in multiple actors, each with their own agendas. But this is a gamble, and the outcome is far from certain.
The broader implications of this diplomatic outreach are profound. If India steps into the role that Iran envisions for it, there could be a shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. A more active India in the region could serve as a moderating force, potentially deescalating tensions and paving the way for negotiations.
But if India hesitates, or if it finds itself unable to balance its competing interests, the consequences could be dire – not just for the Middle East, but for global stability.
The writer is an India-based lawyer specializing in cross-border trade and investments, and a fellow with the South Asia Democratic Forum in Brussels.