The collective high that Israel felt on Tuesday when it heard of the jaw-dropping “exploding pager” operation carried out in Lebanon that left some 4,000 Hezbollah men wounded was short-lived.
It was cut short by the IDF announcement cleared for publication on Wednesday morning that four soldiers were killed and four others were wounded in Rafah.
This is emblematic of the roller-coaster nature of this war: some days bring victories, others deliver setbacks. Often, setbacks and victories come on the same day. It is best not to let the victories go to one’s head, or the setbacks to cause abject demoralization.
Let’s stop for a second, however, and focus on Tuesday’s success – on its benefits and challenges, mindful of the caveat that while Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the exploding pagers, and for Wednesday’s subsequent bombings, Jerusalem has not claimed responsibility.
But let’s assume, for argument's sake, that Israel had something to do with this wildly innovative action. What was achieved, and what wasn’t?
Count a renewed belief in the country’s capabilities as one of the main achievements.
Yes we... can?
The “yes-we-can” feeling that followed news of the exploding pagers is similar to the national sentiment on August 25, when the Israel Air Force preemptively hit long-range Hezbollah missile launchers poised to fire; to the feeling on June 8 when the IDF rescued Noa Argamani and three other hostages from Hamas captivity; to the feeling on April 13 when Israel, with outside help, shot down over 300 Iranian drones and missiles.
Israel’s belief in its own capabilities is vital during a long conflict such as this one, which started on October 7 when the country’s shortcomings were embarrassingly laid bare for all to see.
The length of the war, its ups and downs, and the failure so far to free the hostages can lead to self-doubt: Does Israel still have it? Can it still survive in a neighborhood alongside groups who want to annihilate it? Tuesday’s action showed that, yes, the country still has the X-factor, that Entebbe factor, vital for survival in the region.
Surrounded by enemies who seem to be multiplying – think of the Houthis firing a ballistic missile on Sunday and a drone from Iraq landing near the Kinneret on Wednesday – it would be easy for the nation to be demoralized at the prospect of emerging from this conflict holding the upper hand. Tuesday’s action helps dispel those self-doubts.
Reassurance in strength
In the wake of the operation, much was said about the signal this sends to Hezbollah and Iran about Israel’s capabilities and how that could be a significant deterrent. But set aside the message this sent to Israel’s enemies. It also sent a strong message internally: Don’t despair – the country’s capabilities are beyond imagination and its ability to defend itself is considerable and still intact.
That being said, Tuesday’s action – a huge tactical success – was not a strategic game-changer.
This success was similar to ones Israel has had over the years against Iran: killing top-tier scientists; stealing nuclear archives; and booby-trapping centrifuges so that they explode upon spinning. These steps were tactically brilliant and slowed down Iran’s race toward the bomb, but they did not derail it.
Tuesday’s action in Lebanon can be seen in a similar light. It demonstrated tremendous operational capabilities, but it is not the major military move that, absent any diplomatic initiative, would silence Hezbollah.
Some heard the news of the pager explosions on Tuesday and believed it was a prelude to a much bigger military maneuver that would drive Hezbollah beyond the Litani River and enable displaced Israelis to return home.
After all, the exploding pagers sowed chaos in Lebanon, badly disrupted Hezbollah’s crucial means of communication, and sidelined thousands of operatives for at least a short period – a good opening blow that some believed would be followed by an even stronger knockout punch. As of this writing, however, that follow-up punch has not been delivered, leaving Israel with an undeniable tactical victory over Hezbollah but with Hezbollah still firing drones and rockets at the North.
As impressive as these tactical victories are, they are still no substitute for a broad military maneuver to push Hezbollah away from Israel’s border. These actions may make such a maneuver easier, but they do not replace it.