Nasrallah is likely regretting today that he didn't join the October 7 Massacre. The elderly leader in the bunker is eager to respond beyond the current barrage of rockets fired at northern Israel—and he has the means to do so. But let’s not kid ourselves; this is far from over.
Right now, however, Nasrallah faces significant challenges in executing his plans. His senior command structure has been decimated, thousands of operatives are out of action, communication networks are severely disrupted, and reports suggest disappointment with his backers in Tehran. Adding to his troubles are relentless strikes on Hezbollah’s weapon depots.
It’s clear that Israel prepared meticulously for this scenario long ago, gathering intelligence, identifying targets (including targeted warnings sent through secure communications, sometimes humorously referred to as “beepers”), and taking the threat seriously. Israel studied the enemy intensely and devised a structured war plan it knew would eventually be needed.
This starkly contrasts with the situation in Gaza. When you study your enemy comprehensively, don’t underestimate them, and prepare detailed, intelligence-based strategies—you can manage them. But when you underestimate, neglect intelligence, and turn a blind eye—you open the door to surprises, even if, fortunately, not to defeat.
Another key difference lies in the dynamics on the ground. In Lebanon, most of the population opposes the significant Shia minority that supports Hezbollah. In Gaza, however, Hamas is deeply entrenched within the population and enjoys considerable support.
Hezbollah's weapons caches continue to burn
It’s a stroke of immense luck—if not divine providence—that Hezbollah didn’t join the conflict on October 7. Otherwise, the situation would be vastly different. It’s reminiscent of the inexplicable halt of Syrian forces on the Golan Heights during the Yom Kippur War (1973 Arab-Israeli War).
As Hezbollah’s weapon caches continue to burn—and may they burn even more—the pressing question in the corridors of the Kirya (Israel’s Defense Ministry headquarters) and Givat Ram (government complex in Jerusalem) is: What’s next? How do we ensure this threat never looms again? We cannot afford another, “and the land had rest for forty years” (Judges 5:31) situation before the next great war.
Options must include a new regional alliance, de-radicalization of educational systems, dismantling UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency) and other conflict perpetrators, completely severing Iranian involvement in Lebanon, and the expulsion of Hezbollah’s leadership. All these options need to be explored in depth.
After World War II, the European Union was born from a radical partnership between former arch-enemies, Protestant Germany and Catholic France, who had fought over Europe’s hegemony for centuries. Suddenly, they had to depend on each other to rebuild. This initiative, supported by the US and the Marshall Plan, also involved the de-Nazification of Germany’s education system and the imposition of liberal Western governance on the population, leading to the Germany we know today.
This may be the path forward, or perhaps not. What’s essential is a long-term vision to address the Iranian threat, not just the ad-hoc band-aids we have become experts at applying.
And finally, 101 of our brothers and sisters are still trapped in Hamas tunnels in Gaza. The time has come to act, including taking a firm stand against Qatar, to secure their release.