Sometime in the future, a state commission of inquiry will finally be established. Although it will have many factors to investigate regarding the October 7 disaster, the circumstances that led to the catastrophe, and the management of the war, there is one area that it likely won’t be able to delve into.
Recently, the media reported that the American administration is pressuring Israel to avoid a full-out war with Lebanon, fearing it could lead to an even wider war. These concerns have been guiding the administration’s actions from the first moment, when US President Joe Biden delivered his famous “Don’t” speech on October 10 and sent American forces to the Middle East, literally reinforcing his words. Although there is some logic in the American policy of deescalation, it has led to completely opposite results.
The American interest is for the war to end as quickly as possible. However, the path to achieve this is entirely different.
The US is holding Israel back - to the detriment of everyone involved
From the very beginning, the Biden administration has been pressuring Israel to hold back: They asked Israel to delay fighting in Gaza, minimize damage and casualties, and strive for a ceasefire.
In hindsight, it’s clear that this policy has become a tragedy for all involved. First, the primary victims of the war, the residents of the Gaza envelope, do not feel safe enough to return to their homes while the fighting continues. Second, the hostages, whom the United States is making great efforts to release, are also suffering from this policy. The pressures repeatedly applied on Israel to compromise have led Hamas leader Sinwar to a point where he is, as White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said: “not willing to continue discussing in good faith” any hostage exchange deal.
Sinwar’s position is the only logical outcome of these pressures. What incentives does he have to show any flexibility from his a priori position – which states that Israel must withdraw from the Gaza Strip, allow Hamas to control the Gaza Strip, and agree to a “ceasefire” (the same one that was in effect on October 6) – when Israel’s ally is only pressuring Israel extensively? Allowing Sinwar and the Hamas leadership to believe that the war has any other outcome but utter destruction of the Gazan terror groups, extends the war.
THE HUMANITARIAN situation in Gaza is difficult. But the demands the Americans have placed on Israel – which increased the flow of aid to 200 trucks of humanitarian supplies – hinders the war effort and impedes military progress. No US president want a war in an election year, and no presidential nominee, as both candidates have stated, they want the war to end. Yet the US keeps pressuring Israel to hold back. Now in Lebanon, but only a few months ago all eyes were on Rafah or on other populated areas in the Gaza strip. Thus, even the Gazans safety is jeopardized as result of the US demands.
The American fear of tension in the Middle East is valid every year, not just in an election year. Its not unique for Democrats. Back in 2001, when the first rocket was fired at the city of Sderot from Gaza, the IDF launched Operation “Hot Days” to stop the dramatic deterioration in the security situation of western Negev residents. It took only hours before American pressure to stop began, and shortly after the IDF folded. Since then, and to this day, every Israeli activity in the Gaza Strip is initially met with understanding, which turns in a few days or weeks, to a demand for withdrawal. The same is true now.
The horrors of October 7 led to the same result. Ostensibly, the administration understood Israel, but within a short time, the pressures and restrictions began. The Americans claimed they were operating under the lessons learned from their experience in Afghanistan, but in the process, they exerted brutal and unprecedented pressure on Israel – including participating in war cabinet meetings and even withholding armaments from the IDF.
Above all, when the United States demands that Israel avoid a regional war, it completely ignores the fact that Jerusalem is already surrounded in six fronts: Judea and Samaria, Gaza, and Lebanon at high intensity, but Syria, Iraq, and Yemen also constantly threaten Israel. When the current administration demands that Israel avoid a full-out war with Hezbollah, it is essentially demanding that Israel continue fighting with its hands tied behind its back, avoiding annihilation of the constant threat. Unfortunately, Biden and Blinken’s assessments and entreaties have so far led to reaching the situation they previously tried to avoid, only from an even weaker position.
The writer is a former spokesman for Israel’s National Public Diplomacy Directorate.