“Luck rules every human endeavor, especially war,” wrote Roman historian Titus Livius.
War, with all its strategy, technology, and discipline, sometimes throws out brutal reminders of the randomness of fate. No matter how advanced military capabilities may be, luck can often tip the balance, dramatically altering the outcome of key battles and entire conflicts.
In the immediate aftermath of October 7, Israel was in shock. The country had never experienced anything on the scale of the Hamas attack, nor the pure hatred and violence carried out on innocent Jewish communities. The country was left reeling at the failures of its security establishment to heed warnings and properly respond.
Since then, Israel has bounced back.
Israel's comeback from October 7
On July 13, the IDF had intelligence that Mohammed Deif, head of the al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, was located in a compound bordering the al-Mawasi area safe zone in Gaza. Targeting the compound in an air strike, it killed Deif.
A mere two weeks later, On July 31, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was assassinated while in Tehran, Iran, where he was attending the inauguration of newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Reports confirmed that Haniyeh and one of his bodyguards were killed.
According to sources, the assassination involved a remotely detonated explosive device hidden within the guesthouse where Haniyeh was staying. The device, reportedly planted two months earlier, was triggered after it was confirmed that Haniyeh had entered the room. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that the Hamas leader was killed by a short-range projectile launched from outside the building where he was located.
In whatever way Haniyeh did meet his end, the chutzpah Israel showed to target him inside Tehran, the belly of the beast itself, was scarcely believable. It seemed like the Mossad tales of years gone by rather than 21st-century warfare.
More was to follow.
On September 17 and 18, a coordinated series of explosions targeted thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to Hezbollah terrorists, leading to the deaths of 42 people and injuring at least 3,500. According to the Lebanese-based terrorist group, around 1,500 of the group’s fighters were rendered inactive due to injuries. Although Israel publicly denied any involvement, unnamed Israeli sources later indicated to media outlets that the operation was conducted by the Mossad in collaboration with the Israeli military.
A few days later, Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary-general, was killed in an Israeli airstrike targeting a meeting of the terrorist group’s leaders. The attack occurred in Beirut, where Hezbollah’s underground command center was located approximately 60 feet beneath residential buildings. The Israel Air Force, utilizing F-15I fighter jets, executed the strike.
The killings of Deif, Haniyeh, and Nasrallah, along with the Hezbollah beeper attack, showed both the audacity and level of intelligence gathering that Israel has carried out to strike heavy blows against its neighboring enemies.
This week, on the other hand, was slightly different.
On Wednesday morning, soldiers of the IDF’s 828th Bislamach Brigade were patrolling Tal al-Sultan, an area of Rafah, and noticed suspicious figures going in and out of a building, on which the IDF directed fire. Later that day, drones picked up three figures moving from house to house.
The IDF continued to fire on them. Two went into one structure while the third went into a different building, taking himself up to the second floor. An IDF tank fired on the structure and drones were used to investigate the outcome.
Video footage shows a wounded man sitting in an armchair, his face covered, and he was seen throwing a stick at the drone. The IDF fired again and only on Thursday were the checks complete. Facial, dental, fingerprint, and DNA checks led to the conclusion that the IDF had found and killed the mastermind of the October 7 attack and leader of Hamas: Yahya Sinwar.
The discovery and death of Sinwar was a major piece of fortune (or divine intervention, depending on one’s beliefs.) Although all factors pointed to Sinwar being in Rafah and surrounded by hostages, this was not months of groundwork, intelligence gathering nor an attack designed to grab the world’s attention with its chutzpah and daring. This was simply soldiers carrying out their job and, in the end, killing one of Israel’s greatest enemies.
What changes this will bring to the war and the fate of the hostages remains to be seen, but it counts as one of Israel’s most successful actions.
Sometimes you just need a little bit of luck.