The Islamic Republic of Iran stands on the precipice of collapse. After 45 years of tyranny, terrorism, and corruption, the regime faces mounting internal pressure from a disillusioned and oppressed populace. Its external ambitions of regional dominance and ideological war with Israel have only isolated it further. The future of the region, particularly the delicate balance between war and peace, hinges on how the coming months play out.
The Iranian people, already fed up with a regime that has brought them nothing but misery, may finally be nearing their breaking point. For Israel, this moment presents both a grave threat and a golden opportunity – to decisively weaken the regime and potentially help usher in a new chapter for Iran.
The Iranian people’s struggle
For decades, the Islamic Republic regime has ruled Iran with an iron fist, relying on fear, suppression, and barbarism to maintain its grip on power. The regime’s ideology, rooted in Khomeinism, has fostered an environment where dissent is crushed, freedoms are curtailed, and citizens’ lives resemble those of hostages. The Iranian people, subjected to this tyranny, have no interest in the wars their government wages in their name.
The people of Iran are victims of the regime’s warmongering. They never asked for a war with Israel or the broader West, yet for 45 years, they have been forced to endure the consequences of a government far more interested in exporting revolution and terrorism than in the welfare of its citizens. The Islamic regime has dragged the country into a quagmire of international isolation, crippling sanctions, and economic despair. The vast majority of Iranians do not support this war, nor do they harbor any enmity toward Israel or its people.
A regime built on terrorism and repression
The Islamic Republic came to power through a combination of deceit, manipulation, and violence. Its leaders, including Ali Khamenei, have consistently used terrorism as a tool to maintain control, both domestically and internationally.
From Hezbollah in Lebanon to Hamas in Gaza, the Islamic regime has extended its reach through a network of proxy terrorist organizations, destabilizing the Middle East while maintaining a facade of resistance against the West and Israel.
Yet this very strategy is unraveling.
The regime’s reliance on violence has not only alienated the international community but has also isolated it from its own people. Iranians see through the propaganda, and their anger is palpable. Protests against the regime are frequent, and the regime’s brutal crackdowns only further ignite the flames of dissent.
Internally, the regime has systematically oppressed its citizens, curtailing freedoms, imprisoning political opponents, and fostering a climate of fear. Economically, the country is in ruins, with rampant poverty, inflation, and unemployment. The Iranian people are suffocating under the weight of a government that cares more about exporting terror than addressing the needs of its citizens. Externally, the regime’s aggressive posturing has led to multiple conflicts and deepening segregation on the world stage.
Israel’s struggle against a terrorist state
While the regime in Iran has continuously provoked conflict with Israel, it is important to remember that Israel’s conflict is not with the Iranian people. Israel’s struggle is with the leadership of the Islamic Republic, which has consistently sought to undermine its existence through terrorism and proxy wars. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic, the mullahs have worked tirelessly to instill hatred for Israel and the West, framing themselves as defenders of the Muslim states, even as they impoverish and brutalize their own citizens.
Israel, facing missile and drone attacks orchestrated by the Islamic regime, has been forced to defend itself repeatedly. These provocations are not isolated incidents – they are part of a broader ideological war that the mullahs are waging against modernity, democracy, and the West. The regime’s ultimate goal is to undermine Western civilization and establish a Shi’ite caliphate, with Israel being a prime target of these delusional ambitions.
But Israel is not willing to accept this. Faced with an existential threat from a regime that openly calls for its destruction, it has no choice but to strike back. The continued provocations from Tehran, including the firing of missiles and the orchestration of terror attacks via its proxies, have left Israel with no alternative but to defend itself by dismantling the Iranian regime’s terrorist networks.
The options for Israel
As the situation escalates, Israel is faced with a range of options to neutralize the threat posed by the Iranian regime.
First, Israel could continue to strategically dismantle the regime’s terrorist arms in the region, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. However, this decisive approach, though effective in curbing the immediate threat, may not be enough to change the broader regional dynamic or significantly weaken the regime itself.
The second option, and arguably the more decisive one, would be to directly target key figures within the regime. Eliminating thugs, namely Khamenei and senior military commanders such as Salami, Hajizadeh, and Qa’ani would strike at the heart of the regime’s power structure. These actions would not only disrupt the regime’s military and ideological leadership but could also spark a domestic uprising within Iran. The Iranians, who have long suffered under the regime’s oppression, could see this as an opportunity to rise up and overthrow the mullahs once and for all.
The final option would involve targeting the regime’s nuclear and military infrastructure directly. The regime’s nuclear ambitions are a grave concern for Israel; a decisive strike on these facilities could neutralize the threat once and for all. The elimination of Iran’s nuclear capabilities would be a significant blow to the regime’s prestige, both domestically and internationally. It would also send a clear message to the mullahs that their pursuit of regional domination through terror and intimidation will not be tolerated.
The role of the Iranian people
While Israel’s actions are crucial in neutralizing the external threat posed by the regime, the real hope for lasting change lies with the Iranian people. They are the ones who will ultimately decide the future of Iran.
The Iranian people have endured decades of suffering under the Islamic Republic, but their resolve remains strong. They yearn for freedom, democracy, and a future where Iran is no longer defined by terrorism and repression.
The regime’s collapse, while inevitable, will not come without a fight. The mullahs will cling to power for as long as they can, using every tool at their disposal to suppress dissent. However, the Iranian people are ready. They have already shown their willingness to rise up against the regime, and with the right external support – whether through sanctions, diplomatic pressure, or military action – they could finally topple the regime and reclaim their country.
A shared future of peace
The Islamic regime’s time is running out. Its war with Israel – and indeed with the entire civilized world – has only hastened its demise.
The Iranian people are fed up with a regime that offers them nothing but repression and misery, and they are ready for change.
For Israel, the coming months represent a critical moment in history – a chance to not only defend itself from the regime’s terror but also to help create the conditions for a new, free, and democratic Iran.
The collapse of the Islamic Republic will not only bring peace and stability to the Middle East but also restore hope and dignity to the Iranian people.
History is presenting a golden opportunity, one that must not be squandered. For the sake of the future of the region, the mullahs’ regime must be dismantled. Only then can the people of Iran and Israel celebrate not as adversaries, but as partners in peace and progress.
The writer, based in Washington, is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East studies researcher with a particular focus on Iran and ethnic conflicts in the region. His new book is The Black Shabbat, published in the US. You can follow him at erfanfard.com, and on X @EQFARD.