Officials and pundits have engaged in a lively debate about Tehran’s possible response to Israel’s “Operation Days of Repentance,” in which the Israel Air Force attacked and destroyed more than 20 military sites in Iran, some containing the S-300 Russian air-defense system, others linked to the fabrication of solid fuel for missiles.
While IRGC commanders vow retaliation against Israel, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appears more cautious. A second, more devastating Israeli response could jeopardize not only his son’s prospects in the next election for Supreme Leader but also the survival of the entire theocratic regime.
According to the most recent account, the IAF struck a Revolutionary Guards base in Shahroud, in the rural Semnan province, which Iran has not mentioned, and where parts of the nuclear weaponization program are based.
Although the full extent of the damage is not yet known, it is quite clear that the regime’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons and delivery systems have been significantly set back.
The attack has created a Solomon-sized problem for the regime. Should the Iranian theocracy respond, it can expect a second, more devastating operation. Should it refrain from action, it risks losing even more of its tarnished reputation as the “strongman” of the Middle East.
The discourse in Tehran has demonstrated the familiar divide between the hardcore group and the slightly more moderate leaders. On one hand, IRGC chief Hossein Salami, in line with his usual bluster, promised to rain fire and brimstone on “the Zionist enemy.” Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the deputy coordinator of the IRGC, also said his regime “will inflict heavier blows and defeats on Israel in the coming days.”
General Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of the IRGC, said that “Iran’s response to the aggression of the Zionist regime is certain. We have not left any aggression unanswered for over 40 years. We can target everything that exists among the Zionists in a single operation.”
The ultra-conservative Agah newspaper called on the regime to “raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground.” Other Farsi conservative outlets even noted that the IRGC is already preparing for a “devastating, unprecedented and surprise attack” on Israel in the coming days.
Claims that Iran doesn't want war
Representing the more moderate wing of the leadership, President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran is not seeking war but reserves the right to respond.
Faisal bin Farhan, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, stated that the Islamic Republic has communicated to Saudi Arabia that it does not wish for ongoing regional tensions, seeing no benefit in them. According to him, Iran is taking steps to ease tensions with Israel.
Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence indicates that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory, using pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, rather than launching directly from Iranian territory, likely in an attempt to avoid another Israeli strike on strategic targets within Iran.
However, it’s incredibly shortsighted to think this will prevent Israel from retaliating against Iranian strategic sites, even if the attack is staged indirectly through Iraq. In fact, it is highly likely that Israeli intelligence publicized this information specifically to signal to the Iranians that Israel will consider any such attack a direct act of aggression by the regime.
As is well known, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the commander of the armed forces and the ultimate arbiter in the frequent disputes within the regime. However, his latest comments were curiously circumspect.
He stated that “it is up to the country’s officials to determine what is best for the nation and to ensure it is carried out accordingly.” It is unclear whether Khamenei was signaling support for Pezeshkian or abdicating his arbitration role.
Khamenei is reported to be ill and anxious to secure the succession of his son Mojtaba in the next election for Supreme Leader. A second, more devastating Israeli retaliation – especially if the IAF also hits the Thar-Allah Headquarters of the Guards in Tehran, which is in charge of security for the Tehran area – may jeopardize not only his son’s chances but also the survival of the theocratic regime.
The writer is a senior fellow at the Philos Project.