Donald Trump is heading back to the White House, and with him, a return to ironclad support for the US-Israel relationship. Trump ushered in new levels of Israeli normalization in the Middle East during his first term, and he is poised to pick up where he left off.
The Abraham Accords, which fostered agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, later expanding to include Morocco and Sudan, stagnated under the Biden administration. Trump’s “peace through strength” approach to the Middle East will rapidly change things, especially following October 7’s shift of the region.
After the worst attack on Jews since the Holocaust, many nations became more timid in their support for the Jewish state. The United States was no exception. While the US has supplied Israel with arms and defensive capabilities, it has painfully attempted to play both sides of this war. Depending on the audience, Israel either has an absolute right to self-defense and can save the hostages, or is committing atrocities. This lack of consistency emboldened Hamas and Hezbollah, who sensed they could weaken US support by forcing Israel into challenging situations.
President-elect Trump has been clear that Israel can eliminate those who threaten its existence. He wants to end the wars with Hamas and Hezbollah, but unlike the status quo, he will not make Israel accept a pause that allows the terrorist organizations to rearm.
This mantra tells the neighborhood that Israel is not going anywhere and challenging that comes at personal peril. Hamas and Hezbollah fight because they believe they can chip away at Israel on the world stage. Neither could beat Israel in a traditional war, but if they can use human shields to get the Western world to abandon Israel, that has real implications.
Shifting longstanding beliefs
THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS shifted the long-standing belief that the region would accept Israel after achieving peace with the Palestinian Authority. Israel rejected this logic by becoming too technologically and economically advanced for the region to ignore, opening the door for normalization.
One nation next in line to follow this trend is Saudi Arabia. The Saudi kingdom and Israel have an amicable relationship; when Houthis fire rockets from Yemen, Saudi forces assist in their demise. Saudi Arabia has also been open to the use of their airspace for Israeli travel. Above all, they share a common enemy, Iran.
The Mideast is falling into alliances of pro- and anti-Iran states. Iran is the biggest threat to all nations that do not wish to be terror proxies. Iran used its surrogates to hollow out Lebanon and Iraq, turning them into shells harboring terrorist passage. Saudi Arabia is acutely familiar with Iranian-backed groups; they have been fighting the Houthis on their doorstep for years. The Houthis have launched drone attacks against Saudi oil infrastructure and launched rockets into the kingdom.
Israel can leverage this paradigm to expand the Abraham Accords into not only normalization agreements but also a unified front to counter Tehran. Such an organization would serve not only Israel but the US’s interests as well. Iranian-backed forces have attacked US ships in the Red Sea, creating dangers for commercial and military assets. Trump knows that Iranian forces respond to consequences; he would not unfreeze Iranian assets and attempt to appease them.
Under President Joe Biden, the “might equals wrong” mindset was allowed to take hold across universities, public spaces, and our international bodies. This incentivizes Hamas and Hezbollah’s style of guerrilla warfare and human shields to maximize casualties.
Trump not only rejects this framework, but his cabinet choices do as well: Sen. Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, Rep. Elise Stefanik for United Nations Ambassador, Gov. Mike Huckabee for Ambassador to Israel, Rep. Michael Waltz for National Security Advisor, and even former congressman Lee Zeldin at the Environmental Protection Agency. All are devout friends of Israel. To go from Biden to arguably the most pro-Israel cabinet ever assembled, and returning to peace through strength, will shift the region back to pre-October 6th momentum.
Trump can expand on the foundation of his previous work, and we would all be better for it. A US that stands with its closest allies, not international bodies that participate in the slaughter of Jews, is what is on the table. A strong US-Israel relationship benefits not only the Middle East but the world, and that will come when our enemies know messing with us is not worth the trouble.
The writer was granted the American Israel Public Affairs Committee Activist of the Year Award in 2019 and 2020. He is an Arizona State University-Watts College of Public Service master of public policy graduate.