Donald Trump has borrowed a page from Richard Nixon’s foreign policy playbook – and it just might be working.
Nixon’s Madman Theory was designed to make foes think twice about provoking the United States because its leader was irrational, volatile and unpredictable. At least that’s what he wanted the Soviet Union and China to think.
In reality, he was very smart, experienced and had a clear understanding of history and foreign affairs. History will judge him harshly for his scandals, the Watergate affair, and his resignation from the presidency. But he was not a foreign policy lightweight.
Trump appears to be emulating the madman approach with Iran. It can be very risky because he lacks Nixon’s mental tools, and he has no Henry Kissinger or anyone even close.
Nixon was “strategic and calculated,” while Trump can be “impulsive, ad hoc and incompetent,” said Prof. Natasha Lindstaedt of Essex University, an expert on authoritarian regimes.
Trump is often guided by grievances and retribution for personal slights rather than broad policy goals. While Lindstaedt thinks madman theory is “just idiotic,” it may be enough to give Tehran’s rulers pause.
The FBI uncovered an Iranian plot to assassinate Trump this fall, apparently in revenge for his ordering the killing of top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Whether it was exposure of the plot or the election results, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appears to have changed his mind. He secretly informed Washington after the Biden administration said any attempt on Trump’s life would be considered an act of war, and that his country has no plans to kill the president-elect and will take its grievances to courts, according to The Wall Street Journal.
ELON MUSK, Trump’s billionaire buddy who seems to think he’s some kind of co-president, met last week in New York with Iran’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani, who reportedly said Tehran wants to defuse tensions between the two governments.
Trump “has no interest in regime change,” according to Brian Hook, his first-term envoy for Iran. But he is still threatening to bring back a tougher version of his “maximum pressure” sanctions.
The Iranians take that seriously. They are much weaker today than when Trump left office. The Islamic Republic’s leadership is aging, its economy is down, executions and public unrest are up, and its national security is weaker and more vulnerable, thanks to another practitioner of the madman theory, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Decimating proxies
Israel has decimated Iran’s two leading proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, plus some smaller ones, and decapitated their leadership. It even went inside Tehran to kill Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader.
Iran’s twice-attempted retaliation against the Jewish state in April and October proved humiliating. The hundreds of missiles and drones it fired at its arch foe did little damage and were mostly shot down by Israel with the help of the United States and a few friends, including some Arab states. Jerusalem’s response took out Tehran’s air defenses, notably its Russian-made S-300 missile system, missile and drone factories, and a facility for building triggering devices for possible nuclear weapons. All Israeli planes returned safely.
Iran vowed a “crushing response” after Israel’s October 26 attack. Then came the American election, the foiled assassination plot and damage assessment. The regime downplayed the extent of damage, possibly to avoid public pressure to do more than it wanted. The US beefed up its deterrence in the region, including B52s and carrier battle groups, and President Biden warned Iran that if it attacks Israel again, the United States won’t step in to protect its oil and nuclear sites.
ONE OF the leading Iran hawks of Trump’s first administration, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, won’t be returning. There are several incoming hawks – Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida) at State, John Ratcliffe at the CIA and Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon – but Trump made clear in the campaign that he is war-averse. He has called on Israel to do whatever it takes to end the war with Hamas, seemingly caring less about the outcome than the conclusion.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and a close Trump confidante, recently told Netanyahu “do what you have to do” about Iran’s nuclear programs, Axios reported. The PM said he spoke to Trump and “We see eye-to-eye on the Iranian threat in all its aspects and the danger it poses.”
Trump likes to boast he can stop wars with a single phone call. He craves accolades. He wants to end the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine – Not start new ones – and claim the Nobel Peace Prize.
Israel Hayom, the Adelson-owned newspaper supporting Trump and Netanyahu, quoted unnamed “high-level Israeli sources” saying the “Trump team” is “preparing plans to topple” the Tehran government. That sounds like wishful leaking coming out of the Prime Minister’s Office. And it runs counter to what Trump aide Brian Hook has said.
Iran wants sanction relief. Its ambassador dangled business opportunities in front of Musk during their meeting, The New York Times reported. And between terms, Trump and his sons have been drumming up business in the Gulf.
The president-elect also wants to add Saudi Arabia to the Abraham Accords, the premier foreign policy achievement of his first term, another milepost on his imagined road to Stockholm.
Trump abrogated the 2015 nuclear agreement negotiated by Obama, with a lot of pressure from Netanyahu, and boasted he could make a better deal. He never seriously tried.
He is unpredictable, often not even knowing himself what he’ll do next. His former national security advisor, John Bolton, said prior to the election that Trump is intrigued with the idea of “being the guy who went to Tehran” and if elected “he’ll end up” there in his first year. He likes drama and conflict, Bolton said.
Nixon went to China, Trump went to North Korea, and he’d like to go to Tehran and Moscow. And Stockholm.
The writer is a Washington-based journalist, consultant, lobbyist, and a former legislative director at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.