As Israel’s wary ceasefire with Hezbollah continues, there is only one path to success. Israel must break its pattern of indulgence, allowing diplomatic agreements to die amid a thousand infractions, as each little attack seems not worth triggering international opprobrium. And the US must support Israel aggressively, bullying the international community into allowing Israel to punish any violations, no matter how minor.
It happened during Oslo. It happened after America promised that the Gaza Disengagement would include a zero-tolerance policy for any violence from anywhere in the Strip. And it happened after the 2006 Hezbollah War. UN Security Council 1701 supposedly guaranteed peace in Southern Lebanon, with no armed forces other than the Lebanese Army rearming. Yet the Palestinian Authority, Hamas, Hezbollah, chipped away at the agreements, and Israel kept indulging them – until disaster struck.
This time, after Hamas invaded on October 7 – then Hezbollah joined and then the Houthis and other Iranian proxies bombed from afar, until Iran, finally and predictably, unleashed two unprecedented missile attacks – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the IDF, the Americans, and the ever-feckless international community should have wised up.
The ceasefire will only last if Israel’s 80,000 northern evacuees can return home and rebuild, while Hezbollah terrorists avoid Southern Lebanon, knowing they’ll be crushed if they dare return.
Trigger warning: Yes, my language is aggressive and my position is militant. But it’s remarkable that after fourteen months of war, not enough people realize that strength brings peace and weakness brings war, especially against jihadists.
Things to celebrate
Meanwhile, let’s celebrate our heroic soldiers and resilient reservists, Israel’s unbelievable intelligence community, the IDF high command, and Netanyahu’s resolute leadership, both North and South.
I am a Fitzgeraldian Zionist – as in F. Scott. I can hold two conflicting thoughts in my head. I can blame our military and political leaders for their October 7 failures, while encouraging them to take this victory lap.
True, for years they allowed Hezbollah to amass 150,000 rockets and a formidable fighting force. But, unlike with Hamas on October 7, Israel’s leaders took that threat seriously enough to play their A-game: crushing Hezbollah while humiliating the terrorist group’s evil patrons in Iran.
REMEMBER SEPTEMBER 16? Hezbollah terrified us – in ways Hamas never did, even on October 7. We kept hearing that their fighters were professional, their missiles plentiful, Tel Aviv’s towers were vulnerable, and weeks-long electrical outages were possible.
Then boom – actually beep! With that first booming beeper, Israel changed everything. And no, my delicate friends warning that violence begets more violence, you’re wrong. These attacks were as surgical as it gets in warfare against jihadi maniacs who cower behind civilians. Besides, considering the many terrorist trigger fingers destroyed, that clever move reduced levels of violence worldwide – now and in the future, especially considering the new junior jihadis who cannot be spawned.
Systematically since then, Israel has degraded Hezbollah and demeaned its Iranian paymasters. Even The New York Times proclaimed on November 27: “A Battered and Diminished Hezbollah Accepts a Cease-Fire.” Since then, with president-elect Donald Trump planning “maximum pressure” on Iran, with Syria’s Bashar Assad teetering, and with their favorite terrorists defeated, Iran’s mullahs are retreating.
The ceasefire “indicates the degree to which Iran is concerned and worried about its new vulnerability and the incoming Trump administration,” Paul Salem, a Lebanon expert at the Middle East Institute told the Times.
While thanking President Joe Biden and the Americans for the munitions and intelligence they provided generously, Israelis need to teach Biden’s successors what “taking the win” looks like. When Biden told Israel to “take the win” – meaning accept simply resisting Iran’s April 13 attack – he confused effective but momentary defense with the intimidating deterrence Israel needs to survive in its unforgiving neighborhood.
While many Americans acknowledge Israel’s impressive victory over Hezbollah, I haven’t heard any of them regret their advice to slow down, avoid conflict, and try to appease Hezbollah. Similarly, as reservists in Gaza report that Hamas is reeling, having seen the IDF overrun Rafah with limited civilian casualties, few Americans admitted they were wrong for constantly trying to restrain Israel.
Such stubbornness amuses me as an Israeli, because we won anyway. But it terrifies me as an American historian. The unwillingness of people in power – and the worldwide popcorn gallery – to acknowledge mistakes prevents them from learning from them.
Where does Israel stand?
HERE, THEN, is where we stand, as of this moment.
• Israel must keep pressure on Lebanon, and prevent Hezbollah from rearming and from flooding Southern Lebanon – ever again.
• Israel and the US must keep pressure on Iran, and evaluate what pressure points would weaken the regime from within – while assessing when it’s time to attack its nuclear project from without.
• And, learning from its successes, Israel must keep the pressure on Hamas in Gaza, hunting down terrorists while, in the spirit of the ceasefire,
• Starting to shift – creating incentives for Hamas to free the hostages, which also means accounting for every last one, while allowing others from the Arab world to step in and start governing.
This way, Israel can ever so slowly start withdrawing and start lightening its grip, while controlling the Philadelphi corridor to protect smuggling, keeping the Netzarim crisscross corridor until stability is achieved, and never allow any Gazans to live within a kilometer of any Israeli villages ever again, or approach the border gate with impunity – as they did for years, step by step wearing down the zero-tolerance for infractions policy Israel needs on its borders to survive. Never again is there – now.
The writer, a senior fellow in Zionist thought at the Jewish People Policy Institute, is an American presidential historian. His latest book, To Resist the Academic Intifada: Letters to My Students on Defending the Zionist Dream, was just published.