For the first time since 2016, Aleppo, Syria, is in rebel hands. The Syrian regime, a fragile shell since the 2016 revolution, was unprepared for a new wave of opposition forces.
Multiple factions are seeking to reshape the turmoil-riddled nation, many backed by foreign players or uneasy alliances. For those who do not follow Syrian affairs, it would be easy to view this conflict as a spark in a decade-long civil war, when, in reality, this is an outside effort to eliminate vulnerable ethnic groups.
In order to fully understand what is happening, it is important to know who is fighting in Syria. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is the main force there, seizing territory. HTS is a known terrorist organization that began as an offshoot of al-Qaeda.
HTS opposes the regime led by President Bashar al-Assad and is supported by Istanbul. For years now, Turkey has been operating in Northern Syria, seeking to develop a buffer zone along their shared border and to eliminate groups considered a danger to their sovereignty.
Since HTS is an Islamic terror group and fundamentally opposed to Christian Syrians, all Christians in the areas it occupies are at risk.
PKK aligned?
Another group is the Syrian National Army (SNA), mainly Turkish and Arab mercenaries primarily carrying out campaigns against Kurdish groups on behalf of Turkey. Many of the SNA’s men are rebels from the previous Syrian revolution.
SNA and HTS do not fight one another, as SNA is seeking out Kurdish minorities and HTS is fighting the Assad regime; they overlap in many areas.
The Kurdish groups pursued by the SNA, Turkey, and the Syrian regime are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the People’s Defense Unit (YPG). Both the SDF and the YPG are fighting for a Kurdish safety zone – or homeland – in Northern Syria.
Turkey accuses these groups of being aligned with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group that has carried out attacks within Turkey. Many Kurdish groups saw the 2016 uprising as an opportunity to break away from Syria; while Turkey viewed it as a chance to eliminate Kurdish communities they considered a risk. Turkey’s efforts have resulted in mass displacement and ethnic cleansing along its border with Syria.
The Syrian regime is propped up by Russia and Iran. Assad has been dramatically weakened over the last few years, his government incapable of maintaining control across the country, leaving the north in a revolving cycle of militias and power vacuums.
When Assad was previously on the brink of being overthrown, he had Iran deploy Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon to come to his aid. Due to Israel’s war against Hezbollah, which has largely dismantled its military capabilities, Assad is unable to call on them again.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is reportedly offering assistance against the HTS, but Iran is spread thin after supplying Hamas and Hezbollah in prolonged wars against Israel.
The Syrian regime has carried out horrific attacks against its people. In multiple instances, the regime is accused of using chemical warfare against dissidents and opposition. So, while it would make sense for Syrians to rise up again, this new wave of fighting is much more complicated than a revolution in the north.
In all likelihood, Turkey will back the HTS and SNA until they are satisfied with their ethnic cleansing campaign against the Kurds – and then strike a deal with Assad to turn on the HTS.
Turkey is not interested in overthrowing Assad; the HTS is a means to an end to clear the way for SNA units. Meanwhile, the HTS will persecute and kill Christian communities along the way.
The international community has rushed in with their usual rhetoric of “de-escalation” with no guidance on what that means.
If something is not done, Kurdish groups that have been friendly to Israel and the US will continue to face violence along with Syrian Christian minorities. The headlines may discuss the peril Assad faces, but he is not the victim here; it is the Kurdish and Christian people who will come under siege.
The writer was granted the American Israel Public Affairs Committee Activist of the Year Award in 2019 and 2020. He is an Arizona State University-Watts College of Public Service master of public policy graduate.