After the collapse of the Shi’ite Hezbollah in Lebanon, the fall of the Alawite regime in Syria, the Islamist revolts, and the territorial aspirations of minorities, the state borders drawn by the colonial powers are suddenly disappearing.
After a century, the entire region is changing hands and changing its face. The Middle East is disintegrating in fire and blood, and the region risks being transformed into ethnic and community cantons.
Local powers are fighting for hegemony while Israel imposes itself and dictates the way forward, refusing to commit the mistakes of the past.
The mistakes of the past in carving up the Middle East
The Sykes-Picot Agreements signed in 1916 by France and England divided the Middle East lightly and arbitrarily. The current situation is the result of the clumsy policy of the West, a misunderstanding of the Arab world and the Islamists, and an indifference to the fate of Israel – a result of the syndrome of romantic and mercantile colonialism.
From the start, the division was fragile. On July 24, 1920, French Gen. Henri Gouraud entered Damascus with his troops and chased out Emir Faisal, to whom the British offered the throne in Iraq. The United States did not participate in the accords, preferring the auspices of the League of Nations to guarantee the self-determination of peoples. The division into zones of influence by France and England, did not take into account the local populations. Demographic, socio-cultural, and religious aspects were ignored. Several Arab tribes, although nomadic, found themselves separated and dispersed in different states. The Kurds and the Druze sought in vain a territory, and the Maronite Christians sought alliances. The mandatory regimes led to a strengthening of the Alawite minority over the Sunni majority in Syria, and to a domination of the Sunni minority over the Shi’ite majority in Iraq.
The Balfour Declaration, which had offered the Jews a “national home,” was flouted and the partition of Palestine, which took place 30 years later, provoked a permanent war and created an Arab front of refusal, the axis of resistance. Over the years, the region was shaken by internal uprisings, coups, and revolts that continue to this day.
Israel’s unilateral withdrawals from Lebanon (2000) and Gaza (2005) benefited Hamas and Hezbollah because they were not backed by robust agreements. They did not stop the firing of rockets, missiles, and drones on Israel by Hamas – an affiliate of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood – and by Hezbollah, a Shi’ite militia trained, supported, and financed by Iran.
Even today, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Iranian ayatollahs advocate the destruction of the Zionist state. Despite the weakening of Iran and the defeat of its satellites, Tehran’s bellicose policy remains unambiguous with a nuclear project, an existential threat that the Jewish state will have to destroy by all means.
The West and the United Nations have failed to prevent any of the wars in the Middle East and have always advised Israel against launching a preventive operation, despite the existential dangers it faced. The events that appeared on the eve of the Six Day War are a first eloquent example. Strong pressure was exerted by the international community and by the Biden administration in particular, for the IDF not to enter Rafah and not to launch a large-scale preventive operation in southern Lebanon. And yet, the global situation has changed in the face of the impotence of democracies and the failures of the West to resolve local conflicts, particularly in Ukraine.
Despite the uncertainties and concerns, the new Middle East also presents new opportunities. It offers Israel chances to develop security cooperation with pragmatic elements in the region, with all those who fight extremists including Iran. However, before acting in this direction, we should first prevent the flow of terrorists and Iranian weapons to the Golan Heights and the West Bank. The Hashemite kingdom is still vulnerable. Twenty percent of its population are fanatical Muslim Brotherhood Hamas militants.
Let us therefore remain optimistic, in spite of all the threats and risks, provided we have a pragmatic political will and an action plan to push aside Iran and the Islamists and to reshape the Middle East, finally leading it toward stability and coexistence.
Now Israel will be able to better explain how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not the most important or the only concern in the region. That there are real security problems that justify defensible borders on the Golan Heights and in the Jordan Valley. More than ever, we can convince European chancelleries of the strategic value of the Jewish state in the defense of the West itself. The Palestinian question cannot be definitively resolved without a comprehensive solution to all other conflicts in the region.
Finally, resorting to diplomacy is undoubtedly the best tool to avoid wars and put an end to conflicts, but it is essential to negotiate with full knowledge of the facts and to scrupulously ensure that a balance is maintained between the antagonists.
Faced with the new geopolitical situation, the IDF will have to maintain its presence in Gaza, in southern Lebanon, and on the heights of Mount Hermon, until the day when Israel wins its case and solid guarantees to finally be able to live in absolute security without fearing a new nightmare scenario such as that of October 7, 2023.
The writer, a former Foreign Ministry senior adviser who served in Israel’s embassies in Paris and Brussels, was Israel’s first ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Mauritania and is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.