Within hours of the disintegration of Syria as we know it, it became clear that Israel was already taking concrete steps to adjust to the new reality. Less than 24 hours after Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi conceded that Assad’s regime had fallen to the insurgent opposition and rebel forces, the IDF announced it had moved troops into the buffer zone that had been separating the countries since the 1974 armistice; captured strategic military positions along the border; and Syrian reports indicated that multiple bombing runs had been carried out by Israel’s air force, destroying Syrian and Iranian caches and facilities before they would have been taken by one of Syria’s armed opposition factions.
All of these actions make sense. Most are logical, short-term precautions and the bombing of military infrastructure is an opportunity well seized. However, while they are all immediate military steps, none of them are groundbreaking strategic moves. Syria’s current collapse also presents Israel with a strategic opportunity as the region is being reshaped for years to come.
True, it is easy to write ideas that are deemed worthless as reality unfolds. Only weeks ago it seemed extremely unlikely the Syrian opposition would manage to topple Assad’s regime within days, after failing to do so for almost a decade. But while caution is necessary and healthy skepticism welcomed, here are three areas Israel’s decision makers should be looking at to see how they can best serve Israel’s interests.
First, disrupting Iran’s supply routes to Israel’s borders. For years, Tehran had armed its proxies there and in the region, resulting in the still ongoing war the Jewish state has been fighting on multiple fronts. In many ways, Syria was a central part of this effort, acting as a staging ground for Iranian logistical and military efforts in the region.
With Syria’s collapse, Israel must strive to sever the supply routes established from Tehran to Beirut, by land or by sea, as well as force out any “advisors” from Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who happen to still be in the area.
SECOND IS the question of Syria’s internationally recognized borders. Until now, the country was treated as a single state based on the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, even after the central government lost control over many parts to the rebel and opposition factions. The collapse of Assad’s regime has the potential of changing what Syria is as a country.
For Israel, this could present an opportunity to improve its position along the border with Syria, as the IDF is already doing, but in a more permanent manner. Additionally, such a scenario could reintroduce the question of an independent Kurdish region to the world – with the Kurds in eastern Syria already receiving significant military backing from the US.
Who will shape Syria in the coming years?
The third and largest question is: What are the powers that will play a role in shaping Syria? Currently, one US dollar is worth some 13,000 Syrian pounds. Whoever rules in Damascus will need a lot of economic aid to restore Syria as an independent country with a future for its people.
For years, Iran and Russia pulled the strings behind the scenes of Assad’s presidential palace. This won’t necessarily be the case in a month, a year or five years from now. Turkey is obviously highly invested, actively supporting Syrian factions in the north of the country, near its own border. European countries who will see an opportunity to send millions of Syrian refugees home will throw their hat into the mix. While a peace treaty between Jerusalem and Damascus might not be in the works now, it is in Israel’s interest to back-channel and work with those who finance Syria’s rebuilding.
The events of the past week aren’t merely dramatic – they are historic. December 2024 marks the end of the Assad family’s terrorizing rule over Syria, which started in November 1970 when Gen. Hafez al-Assad led a coup d’état and made himself president. But it would be foolish to only look at these days as the end of one era; they are also the start of a new page for Syria and its people.
Israel has a 100-kilometer border with Syria. The actions taken by the IDF in recent days show that Jerusalem is determined to safeguard that border and its people from any spillover of the internal fighting in Syria. At the same time, Israel’s leadership must see what strategic gains are to be made over the next months and years, as Syria emerges from the fighting to a new dawn, and an extremely pro-Israel US president and administration enter the White House. An opportunity like this comes once in a lifetime – it would be a shame to miss it.
The writer is the CEO and founder of Genesis 10, and serves as a board member of the Partnership for Peace Fund of the US Agency for International Development (MEPPA) – the largest investment by the US Congress in peace-building in the Middle East.