Lebanon has elected Joseph Aoun as its new president, ending a two-year power vacuum. Western and regional powers have expressed cautious optimism for Lebanon’s future, hoping this election represents a step toward stability. But will Lebanon’s new president be able to confront Hezbollah and uphold the ceasefire agreement with Israel?
Many recognize that Lebanon has been mired in political and economic turmoil for years, but fewer fully understand why the country is often labeled a “failed state.” The presidency had remained vacant for over two years as parliament failed to elect a leader in 12 separate attempts due to deep political factionalism.
Hezbollah and its allies had obstructed the appointment process, lacking enough parliamentary votes to install one of their own candidates. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s acting prime minister functioned as a de facto caretaker, serving the objectives of the terror group.
In Lebanon’s confessional political system, the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian and disagreements over the role often reflect the country’s broader sectarian and political divisions.
Joseph Aoun, formerly the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, brings a reputation marked by successful counterterrorism operations during his tenure. His election garnered support from key political parties and international backing from the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia. Even Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar welcomed Aoun’s victory.
Shortly after taking office, Aoun pledged to “ensure the state’s right to hold a monopoly on weapons and to invest in the army to monitor the borders [and] maintain their security in the south.” To those reading between the lines, this is clearly a reference to disarming Hezbollah. However, the question remains: Will he be able to take the bold steps required to fulfill this pledge?
The outcome of Aoun’s election is largely a consequence of Israel’s military successes in Lebanon and the weakening of Hezbollah. Israel’s efforts diminished the influence of the Iran-backed terror group to such an extent that its grip on Lebanese politics loosened.
This, coupled with the decline of the Assad regime in Syria, severed the Islamic Republic’s broader influence in the Levant and disrupted its land bridge to Lebanon. These shifts allowed Lebanon’s parliament to finally elect a president without fear of a Hezbollah veto.
Analysts' views
Still, it may be too early to celebrate. Some experts question Aoun’s pledge to disarm Hezbollah, arguing that his election was only possible because Hezbollah parliamentarians ultimately supported his candidacy with Iran’s approval. David Daoud, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, points out that Hezbollah “would not vote for someone they know will disarm them.”
The Center for Strategic and International Studies has noted that Aoun’s presidency could offer short-term benefits for Hezbollah, such as facilitating an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and securing international funding for reconstruction in areas where Hezbollah’s support base is concentrated.
However, in the long term, an expanded presence of the Lebanese army in areas once controlled by Hezbollah could significantly weaken the group’s ability to restore its military power.
There is no doubt that Lebanon’s new president faces formidable challenges. Joseph Aoun’s presidency may signal a turning point for Lebanon, but whether it leads to meaningful progress or serves as a temporary reprieve remains to be seen.
His election reflects a shift in the political dynamics that have long empowered Hezbollah, but the tasks of disarming the group and re-establishing state sovereignty are daunting.
Aoun must navigate Lebanon’s entrenched sectarian divides, restore international trust, and fortify the Lebanese Armed Forces. While there is room for cautious optimism, the path ahead demands unwavering resolve and resilience.
The writer is the co-founder and CEO of Social Lite Creative, a digital marketing firm that specializes in geopolitics.