Among the groups that appear ready to end their attacks if a ceasefire happens in Gaza are the Iranian-back Houthis. However, the Houthis appear to be holding out for certain conditions to be met. This has left those closely monitoring the Red Sea with questions about what comes next.
This is important because the Houthis started attacks on Israel and shipping in the wake of the Hamas attack. They have now decided to possibly end those attacks. However, this will let them apparently walk away without any kind of punishment for their actions.The website GCaptain notes that “Maritime stakeholders are closely monitoring the development, as the agreement could be a turning point for vessels in the Red Sea region, where ships have endured numerous drone and missile attacks since October 7, 2023. These attacks have forced much of global trade to divert around the Cape of Good Hope—significantly extending voyage times while raising both costs and emissions.”
The Houthis have attacked numerous ships and escalated their attacks throughout the war in Gaza. They launched cruise missiles, drones, and ballistic missiles at Israel. They have shifted their focus at times from attacking Eilat to attacking shipping to targeting central Israel with ballistic missiles.Several decades ago, this kind of attack would have been seen as very serious. Israel, in the past, viewed attempts to blockade Eilat as a reason for going to war. In the Gulf War, when Saddam Hussein launched Scud missiles at Israel, it was a major crisis and left lasting scars.
Today, Israel has been led to accept missile and drone attacks from numerous fronts. This is because the Hamas attack on October 7 was so brutal that Israel sees the Houthi front as one of the smaller fronts. This has led to a kind of acceptance of the attacks.
Israel hasn't left Houthi aggression unanswered
Israel did retaliate six times, but those attacks, most of them focused on ports in Yemen, have not deterred the Houthis. In fact, the attacks on the Houthis may actually show that Israel will face an uphill struggle to attack Iran if Israel tries to go that route to prevent a nuclear Iran.
This is because the attacks on the Houthis did not stop them, and they had missiles hidden in caves. It turns out it is harder than it looks to strike at underground cave complexes that have missiles in them.The international community also appeased the Houthis, for the most part. The US and several other countries tried to deter the Houthis, but they were unsuccessful. This has taught the region a lesson: Attacks on ships may go unanswered.
Iran has empowered groups like the Houthis to use them as proxies. Because the Houthis are not a “state,” they can often get away with whatever they want. They have pirated at least one ship, for instance. No one seems to even report on what has become of the crew of Galaxy Leader ship that the Houthis seized.
This illustrates how this group gets away with crimes. The Houthis claimed they were backing Gaza, but their attacks on ships targeted innocent civilian crews of commercial ships. The international community did not come out of this looking strong. Shipping lanes were threatened.
The message from the Houthis is that they decide the time and place of attacks. The message they think will resonate is that they got away with this. Time will tell if this is the case.