For over two decades, Israel has been unwavering in its vigilance regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Since the early 2000s, reports from international intelligence agencies, coupled with public statements by Iranian officials, have fueled concerns about Tehran’s progress toward developing nuclear military capabilities.
Although Iranian leaders claim their nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes – focused on energy generation – Israel views this assertion with skepticism.
Iranian rhetoric, combined with its covert activities and regional alliances, has raised red flags for Israeli policymakers.
Successive Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former prime minister Naftali Bennett, have consistently emphasized that Israel will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
Escalation in uranium enrichment
Concerns were further heightened last week when Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), disclosed alarming new data about Iran’s nuclear progress: Iran now possesses approximately 200 kg. of uranium enriched to 60% purity.
This level is perilously close to the 90% threshold required to produce nuclear weapons. According to IAEA calculations, this amount of enriched uranium, if further processed, could yield enough fissile material for at least five nuclear bombs.
Iran’s enrichment activities have accelerated significantly in recent months, with production rates now seven times higher than they were previously.
Point of no return
French President Emmanuel Macron has emerged as one of the most vocal international leaders in highlighting the Iranian nuclear threat. Speaking at the annual conference of French ambassadors earlier this month, Macron described Iran’s nuclear program as the “primary strategic and security challenge” facing France and the European Union.
“Iran’s nuclear program is leading us down a path from which there is no turning back,” he stated, calling for Western nations to impose broad sanctions on Tehran.
Macron also pointed to the “snapback mechanism,” a provision within the 2015 nuclear deal that allows for the automatic reimposition of UN sanctions if Iran violates its commitments that will expire in October 2025.
Humanitarian concerns
Beyond the nuclear issue, tensions between Iran and Western nations have been exacerbated by Tehran’s detention of foreign nationals.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot recently condemned Iran’s treatment of French citizens detained in the country, describing their conditions as “deplorable” and, in some cases, amounting to outright torture.
Barrot urged French citizens to avoid traveling to Iran, citing the risk of arbitrary detention.
He also suggested that any future discussions about easing sanctions on Tehran should be tied to the release of these detainees.
Iran’s military preparations
Amid rising tensions, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has launched a series of extensive military drills across the country, focused on safeguarding sensitive facilities, including the underground uranium enrichment site in Natanz.
The Iranian news agency Tasnim released footage of the exercises, offering a rare glimpse into the Natanz facility’s advanced centrifuge systems.
Iranian officials described the drills as a demonstration of the country’s readiness to defend its critical infrastructure against external threats.
Iran, Russia, and North Korea
On the international front, Iran continues to deepen its partnerships with key allies, most notably Russia and North Korea.
These relationships have significant implications for global stability and security, particularly given the technological and military expertise both nations provide.
Alexei Likhachev, CEO of Russia’s Rosatom, recently confirmed plans for expanded nuclear cooperation between Moscow and Tehran.
This collaboration includes the construction of small and large nuclear power plants in Iran, as well as discussions about additional facilities in Bushehr.
Equally concerning is the growing collaboration between Iran and North Korea dating back to the 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq War.
At that time, North Korea provided Iran with weapons to counter Iraq which was supported by Western and Gulf states.
Over the years, this partnership has expanded into ballistic missile development and technology test data sharing.
North Korean missile designs, such as the Nodong, have served as the foundation for Iran’s Shahab-3 missiles. Iran has provided North Korea with financial resources and technical assistance.
Experts warn that this partnership raises the possibility of nuclear technology transfer.
Trump’s foreign policy legacy
During US President Donald Trump’s first presidency (2017–2021), his administration adopted an unconventional approach to foreign policy, particularly with North Korea.
Trump broke with decades of US diplomatic tradition by engaging directly with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
The two leaders held multiple high-profile meetings, beginning with a historic summit in Singapore in June 2018. While these talks generated significant media attention, they failed to produce concrete agreements on denuclearization.
Trump’s willingness to engage with Kim raised concerns in Israel, which feared that a similar approach might be applied to Iran.
Israeli officials have long worried that diplomatic overtures to Tehran could weaken international resolve and provide Iran with cover to advance its nuclear program.
The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), coupled with Iran’s subsequent uranium enrichment activities, has left the deal in disarray.
A defining year ahead
Critical decisions loom on the horizon.
President Trump has positioned himself as a global peacemaker, citing diplomatic successes such as the Abraham Accords as evidence of his ability to navigate complex geopolitical challenges.
However, his hardline stance on Iran reflects a different strategy – one that combines economic sanctions with the threat of military action.
Trump’s approach suggests that he believes maximum pressure can force adversaries to negotiate on terms favorable to the United States.
For Israel, the stakes could not be higher. The coming months will determine whether the Jewish state can rely on US diplomacy and sanctions to contain the Iranian threat or whether it will need to consider unilateral military action.
The writer is CEO of Radios 100FM, honorary consul general of Nauru, deputy dean of the Diplomatic Consular Corps, president of the Israeli Communication Association, a former journalist at IDF Radio, and a past correspondent at NBC television.