In September 2025, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu invoked Sparta while warning that Israel might need to become more self-reliant in defense production as it faced growing international isolation. Many seized on this reference to compare Israel’s trajectory with Sparta’s isolation and eventual fate.
The recent signing of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, coupled with the range of statements and warnings issued by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, should ring alarm bells in Jerusalem that the Sparta phenomenon could become a reality if relations with the US are mismanaged.
Vance put it succinctly when he said the US should not be criticized or taken for granted, since much of the defensive weaponry that has protected Israel was built by American hands and paid for by American taxpayers.
The purpose of this article is not to criticize or respond to the efficacy of the MOU or Vance’s reframing of the relationship between the US and Israel. While Israel has much cause to be distressed by both, it needs to display caution and sound judgment in managing its future relationship with the US. Vance was correct in saying that President Trump is and remains supportive of Israel while the rest of the world, with isolated but immaterial exceptions, has turned its back on it. True, President Trump’s chaotic and conflicting rhetoric causes heartburn and angst, but he nonetheless remains a leader whose basic instincts are positively inclined toward Israel.
In this regard, as of the time of writing, Netanyahu has displayed the necessary restraint by not directly and publicly criticizing either President Trump or the MOU. The worry is that the populist attack dogs, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, have publicly attacked the agreement and urged Israel not to be bound by it. This may appeal to their electoral bases, but it damages our relations with the Trump administration. Likewise, the opposition parties are sensing blood and using the MOU to present it as Netanyahu’s failure to manage the US relationship, thereby implying that President Trump has effectively acted against Israel’s interests and, by extension, America’s interests.
As Ben Shapiro said on his Daily Wire podcast, as bad as the MOU may appear, it is far from the final act, and what transpires over the next six to 12 months will reveal whether the US has taken the right or wrong approach with Iran.
Yaacov Katz, former editor of The Jerusalem Post, takes a different tack, explaining that Israel, in acknowledging that the US will always act according to what it defines as its own interests, must redefine its relationship with the US.
The shift toward expanding local production and reducing or eliminating the need to obtain US funds for weapons currently produced in the US is an essential part of this process. The government must use the negotiations for a new deal as an opportunity to transition to a relationship that emphasizes the unique partnership while acknowledging Israel’s inalienable right to protect its interests.
The erosion in Israel-US relations
All of the above is elementary, and there is no doubt that Israel’s next government will assume its responsibilities in this regard. Far more concerning, and still not addressed in any meaningful way, is the erosion of the basic tenets that have underpinned the relationship between the US and Israel.
The old bipartisan consensus behind the unique ties between the two countries is fraying. The moderate wing of the Democratic Party is increasingly being challenged by the radical anti-Israel Democratic Socialists. For progressive Democratic candidates, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee has become politically toxic. The current primaries have introduced candidates with clear anti-Israel agendas, including one who has faced scrutiny over a Nazi-style tattoo and other troubling allegations, with barely a whimper of pushback.
A growing number of Democrats have voted to block some arms sales to Israel, and even future US funding for missile-defense systems such as Iron Dome is no longer the near-consensus issue it once was. Expect calls for ongoing bans on arms sales. Anticipate calls to impose economic sanctions and a continuation of the drive to discriminate against Israelis and Jews on campuses and in the arts.
Cenk Uygur, the Turkish American founder of The Young Turks, a left-wing online news and commentary network, welcomed Vance’s remarks, saying that “seeing it today, it was refreshing for all of us.”
That a leading politician portrayed Israel as being reliant on US support to survive should serve as a warning.
Since Vance potentially represents the post-Trump vision for America, it is clear that the emotional attachments to Israel from the Republican side of politics may be replaced by calculations based solely on US interests. It also appears that the combined influence of Turkey, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and company had a greater impact on recent decision-making than Israel did.
This danger is exacerbated by elements of the extreme right, represented by the likes of Tucker Carlson, whose views mirror those on the extreme left in their hostility toward Israel. Vance has not made a clean public break with Carlson’s camp, in contrast to President Trump.
What we are witnessing in the shift in American politics is the loss of the center that ensured Israel’s core interests were protected, whether on the economic front through near-total support against the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement, or in shielding Israel in international forums ranging from the UN to the International Court of Justice.
Were Israel to lose this anchor of support, the results would be catastrophic.
It will take years for Israel to achieve military independence from the US. Any sense of abandonment by the US, in whole or in part, will lessen the desire of Israel’s neighbors to cultivate relations with it, whether through the Abraham Accords or bilateral relationships.
The blood libels of genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and apartheid are gaining traction in the US, especially within the ranks of the Democratic Party, where even those once considered moderate and pro-Israel are adopting these narratives. Should the Americans follow the Europeans, the lawfare being waged against Israel in the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice will embolden those seeking to further punish, sanction, and isolate Israel across all forums.
Israel’s economy, which today exhibits healthy indicators, is being underpinned in large part by the tech sector. Yet other sectors remain vulnerable, and if the movement to impose sanctions and boycotts gains traction, the consequences could be devastating.
Israel's government is not doing enough
Israel’s current government has exercised hubris and a bunker-like mentality in forsaking the need to seriously combat the anti-Israel, anti-Zionist onslaught. Turning a blind eye to the shenanigans of Smotrich and Ben Gvir while treating the rabble of hilltop settlers with kid gloves will only accelerate the process of isolating Israel further.
We are indeed facing the Sparta phenomenon, but not in the way presented by Netanyahu. Once the Trump administration ends, Israel will be exposed like never before. Its successes in the current conflict with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran may have marked Israel as a superpower in the region today.
Yet a lot can happen in the next 10 years, including the economic and military rehabilitation of the Islamic regime in Iran, which will no longer be restrained from resorting to its apocalyptic goal of destroying Israel. Concurrently, the movement to delegitimize and demonize Israel will continue to surge.
Herein lies a major challenge for the next Israeli government: how to address the Sparta phenomenon and the resulting threats it poses to Israel’s future well-being.
Romy Leibler is a former prominent business and communal leader in Australia, now residing in Jerusalem, Israel.