Between Abraham Accords, Biden, Abbas recalibrates PA’s diplomacy
Added into the mix of challenges are the coronavirus pandemic and the PA’s governability problems
By EITAN DANGOTPALESTINIAN AUTHORITY President Mahmoud Abbas (right) greets then-US vice president Joe Biden in 2010. Abbas seized upon the election of Biden as an opportunity to position himself as a positive actor.(photo credit: MOHAMAD TOROKMAN/REUTERS)
In recent weeks, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has taken several significant decisions aimed at returning to the negotiating table with Israel with a tailwind of support from the incoming US administration.The PA’s objective is to return to the position it held before the US president Barack Obama’s administration left office in 2016, while adjusting to the fact that they must adapt to the dramatic developments that have altered the Middle East landscape in recent months, the most significant of which is the signing of the Abraham Accords between Israel and the Gulf states.Abbas understands that a marginalized PA will endanger the continuation of his rule in the West Bank and threaten the entire legacy he wishes to leave behind.The PA has been battered by the significant blows it absorbed during the Trump years. The outgoing US president discarded all previous conventions and initiated a process that shattered the status quo, shaking the pillars on which the PA was founded.The Abraham Accords, under American sponsorship, dealt the most significant blow to the PA to date by leading the Sunni Arab world to differentiate between its relations with Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, thus enabling normalization to begin.The US recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and there was no American call to evacuate any settlements as part of US President Donald Trump’s proposed “Deal of the Century.”Added into the mix of challenges are the coronavirus pandemic and the PA’s governability problems, made worse by its decision to stop receiving tax transfers for several months, creating a budgetary crisis and hitting government salaries hard.Ending security and civilian coordination with Israel created an additional challenge, as did the alienation to the PA’s rule felt by some Palestinians themselves, who reject the PA’s corruption.The straw that broke the camel’s back was a series of accusations against the PA by a Saudi official, who represented the view of the Saudi royal family, accusing the PA and its leaders of being inept, corrupt and harmful to regional interests.Abbas was forced to recalculate. He seized upon the victory of US President-elect Joe Biden as an opportunity to position himself as a positive actor. In addition, Abbas has begun to accept the normalization accords with Gulf states, and has stopped criticizing them in public. Abbas understood that should he fail to take these steps, the PA could well collapse.
He has green lighted a rapid resumption of coordination with Israel, while recoiling from Hamas, and canceling ‘reconciliation’ talks with the group.Abbas is adjusting to the new reality, and has demonstrated an ability to read the map correctly. As the 85-year-old PA president surely nears the end of his long term, he is taking steps such as the resumption of the receipt of tax funds from Israel in order to salvage his legacy.By doing so, Abbas has stabilized his rule and created a new opening for a dialogue that he will manage with the Biden administration, while working to close the wide gap that exists between the PA and Saudi Arabia, a powerful Sunni lead actor.Hamas, for its part, is facing a deterioration of its position at this time, as the multi-pronged crisis in the Gaza Strip widens.Gaza is reeling under the effects of the pandemic, and an ongoing economic crisis.It suffers from high unemployment and its population has practically zero purchasing power. Hamas faces deep isolation. Gaza’s Rafah border crossing with Egypt is opened for only limited amounts of time, and the virus is spreading in the crowded Strip.Hamas’s great fear is a domestic unraveling of its rule, a fear that has led Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to seek new ways to improve the Strip’s situation. Sinwar, who has neutralized the influence of Hamas’s overseas leadership, is still pursuing the buildup of his terrorist army in Gaza and maintains high readiness to strike Israeli targets and cause loss of life and destruction, but war with Israel is far from his desired preference under current circumstances.Still, Hamas could create provocations that may be intended to push Israel into a new arrangement with it, but which could also spill over into conflict at any time.The author, a retired IDF major-general, is a publishing expert at MirYamInstitute.org and former Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories.
