On October 31, the Russian Geographical Society reported the complete disappearance of Mesechev Island, an ice formation with an area of 53 hectares, from the Franz Josef Land archipelago in the Arctic due to climate change. The island's disappearance was confirmed through the analysis of satellite images by researchers and attributed to global warming, which has led to increased melting of Arctic ice formations.
Photographs published on the website of the Russian Geographical Society showed the island's gradual reduction in size until it finally vanished. The first photograph, taken on August 19, 2015, showed a small island with an area of approximately 0.53 square kilometers. By August 12, 2024, the island had shrunk to only 3 hectares, and on September 13, 2024, the island was no longer visible in the images. Under one image, it was written: "The island has completely melted."
The disappearance was first noticed by schoolchildren and students from the interregional project group "RIXCAT." They compared old and new photographs of the Franz Josef Land archipelago made by meteorological satellites to track the changes in Mesechev Island. According to satellite imagery data, the island was formed from the peninsula of the same name as a result of the melting of the glacier on Eva-Liv Island until 1995.
Alexey Kucheyko, Associate Professor at the Moscow Aviation Institute and head of the "RISK-SAT" group, stated: "We monitored it from 2020 to 2022. As of August 19, 2015, its area was about 53 hectares, and by August 12, 2024, it was only 3 hectares. Now it has completely melted." He added that this discovery necessitates updating maritime navigation maps to reflect the island's disappearance.
Researchers hypothesize that global warming, leading to rising sea levels, is the cause of the collapse of this ice island. "If the existing trend of climate warming continues, despite the efforts of the world community on climate change, the ice covers will continue to decrease, and the ice islands will melt," said Irina Golovacheva. She noted that we are currently in an interglacial period, and it is unclear what temperature will be the norm in the next hundred years. "Possibly the warming will continue, or possibly the climate on Earth will again head towards a glacial period," she stated.
Additional research is planned to confirm the melting of Mesechev Island and identify possible changes in the seabed relief. The disappearance of such ice formations may have significant implications for navigation. Experts note that it will be necessary to adjust navigation maps to account for the disappeared islands and the changed outline of the land. "The main influence will be on navigation," said experts, emphasizing the need for updates in navigational information due to the changes.
Experts like Vladimir Pinaev have pointed out the broader effects of melting ice formations. He stated that due to the average annual temperature increase, part of the water that is in a solid aggregate state, namely ice, will melt. This process leads to an increase in the level of water in the ocean and may contribute to changing the salinity of the water both locally and in general. "Ice contains fresh water and will desalinate the ocean," he explained.
The rate of ice melting has increased by 65% in recent years, leading to the disappearance of some ice islands. In the 2010s, the planet was losing 1.3 trillion tons of ice per year, compared to 0.8 trillion tons per year in the early 1990s. The area of ice covers worldwide is gradually decreasing, and, as a consequence, some ice islands may disappear.
The problem of disappearing islands has existed for a long time. Starting from 1823, the Vasilyevsky and Semyonovsky islands were marked on maps of Siberia in the Laptev Sea. However, after 100 years, these islands turned into underwater shoals and effectively ceased to exist. Scientists suggest that some islands are highly likely to be flooded in the next 80 years.
Among the islands at risk are the Cook Islands, located off the coast of New Zealand, Micronesia, the Maldives, and the islands of Fiji, Seychelles, French Polynesia, and the Marshall Islands. Micronesia, a group of 607 islands in the Pacific Ocean, has already seen several of its islands disappear, with others at risk. The famous Maldives are under threat and may be completely underwater by 2100.
If only the world's mountain glaciers melt, the sea level will rise by 0.5 meters. If Greenland melts, the sea level will rise by six to seven meters. If Antarctica melts, it will raise the global ocean by 65 meters. Such melting will take hundreds and even thousands of years. Nevertheless, scientists warn that global warming will submerge entire archipelagos of islands in various parts of the planet by the end of the century.
"These phenomena occur slowly and are not catastrophic in nature, but it should be noted that humanity should pay more attention to the changes occurring and not ignore the forecasts, but adapt to the changes and, anticipating changes in the coastline and the rise in the level of the World Ocean, create safe conditions already now," concluded Vladimir Pinaev.
Sources: Rossiyskaya gazeta, Izvestia.ru, RBC, VietNamNet News
This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq