Researcher warn that Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano approximately 470 kilometers off the Oregon coast, may erupt between July 2024 and the end of 2025. The research team cannot estimate a specific date but based their prediction on indicators such as surface swelling and increased seismic activity.
Measurements in November showed the surface of Axial Seamount had swollen to almost the same height as before its last eruption in 2015, indicating magma accumulation and pressure build-up. This swelling suggests more magma has accumulated beneath the seafloor, increasing pressure.
Geophysicist William Chadwick and his research team have accumulated and analyzed data on Axial Seamount for 10 years. They observed indicators such as surface swelling and swarms of earthquakes that mirror the signs observed before its last eruption in 2015. "Forecasting volcanic eruptions more than hours ahead is pretty unique," Chadwick said, emphasizing the importance of the current predictions for Axial Seamount.
Axial Seamount, one of the most active underwater volcanoes in the Northeast Pacific, rises up to 1,100 meters and is submerged over 1,400 meters beneath the waves, making it one of the most closely monitored submarine volcanoes in the world. The first recording equipment at Axial Seamount was installed in 1997, and since then, scientists have observed the seafloor rumblings associated with three eruptions: in 1997, 2011, and 2015. In recent years, researchers have installed advanced instruments on the seafloor near Axial Seamount to collect real-time data, enhancing their ability to forecast eruptions.
If the eruption of Axial Seamount occurs in 2025, it will be one of the first underwater eruptions to be predicted accurately. "Detecting early warning signals offers the exciting opportunity to deploy remotely operated vehicles to catch the eruption occurring," said Rebecca Carey, a volcanologist at the University of Tasmania in Sandy Bay, Australia.
Axial Seamount has relatively frequent eruptions, providing opportunities to test ideas and offering scientists invaluable data to improve eruption forecasts and deepen understanding of submarine volcanic processes. "Axial Seamount is a good place to test ideas about volcanic forecasting," said Valerio Acocella, a volcanologist at Roma Tre University in Rome. "There is always the risk that a volcano will follow a pattern we haven't seen before and do something unexpected," he added.
Geophysicist Michael Poland of the US Geological Survey's Cascades Volcano Observatory in Vancouver, Washington, agrees that efforts rely on recognizing patterns. "It's about recognizing patterns," Poland said.
While Axial Seamount currently poses minimal immediate threat to human populations due to its remote location, the potential for an eruption raises questions about preparedness. Although submarine volcanoes generally pose a lesser risk to human communities compared to terrestrial volcanoes, their eruptions can have significant consequences. The eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai in January 2022 is a notable exception, as it triggered a tsunami that caused damage across the Pacific, estimated at $90 million.
There has been an increase in seismic activity around Axial Seamount, with hundreds of earthquakes occurring daily, reflecting the movement of magma and indicating an imminent eruption. The inflation of Axial Seamount occurs as magma accumulates underground and pressure builds, causing the swelling phenomenon at the surface.
The monitoring system proved its value in 2015 when Axial Seamount's surface began to swell, an indicator of magma accumulating beneath the crust. Months later, Axial Seamount erupted, validating predictions made by Chadwick and his team. By observing how things develop in the coming year, researchers should be able to hone their understanding of Axial Seamount's eruption patterns.
Researchers are employing artificial intelligence to analyze seismic data from the 2015 eruption, identifying specific patterns that may serve as precursors to future eruptions. Underwater eruptions influence biological ecosystems and hydrothermal systems, and catching an eruption in progress presents a unique opportunity to study its effects on the surrounding environment, including insights into hydrothermal systems and nearby biological communities.
"Whatever happens in 2025 won't change the world of eruption forecasting," said Acocella. "We'll understand it better, and that will help us understand other volcanoes too." Axial Seamount serves as a critical testing ground for predictive models due to its unique geological features and advanced monitoring systems, making it an ideal location for researchers to enhance eruption forecast accuracy.
The submarine volcano was chosen as the site of the world's first underwater volcano observatory, underscoring its significance in undersea volcanic research. "Forecasting is difficult," Chadwick said. Referring to the advantage of studying a submarine volcano where there is minimal risk to human populations, he added, "We don't have to worry about that." As the forecasted eruption approaches, scientists will intensify their monitoring efforts at Axial Seamount, utilizing ground swelling, seismic activity, and other signs to predict eruptions and deepen their understanding of volcanic processes.
The goal is to create a robust system that can provide timely warnings and improve preparedness for potential eruptions, ultimately contributing to safer coastal communities worldwide.
Science News, observervoice.com, and IFLScience reported on the predicted eruption, among other websites.
The article was written with the assistance of a news analysis system.