A recent study published in Nature Medicine warns that climate change could result in over 2.3 million additional temperature-related deaths in Europe by 2099 if urgent action is not taken to cut carbon emissions, according to Science Daily. The modeling study was conducted by researchers at the Environment & Health Modelling Laboratory of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, analyzing the impact of rising temperatures on 854 urban areas across 30 European countries, which represent 40% of the European population.
The researchers indicate that up to 70% of these deaths could be prevented if rapid measures are implemented to reduce emissions. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are crucial to mitigate the projected increase in mortality due to extreme heat.
Cities with high population densities near the Mediterranean are particularly at risk. Financial Times notes that Barcelona ranks first, with the number of expected heat-related deaths reaching 246,082 by the end of the century. Following Barcelona, Rome is projected to have 147,738 deaths, and Naples 147,248 deaths. The study warns that these metropolitan areas could witness a rise in temperature-related deaths due to their exposure to extreme heat combined with large populations.
“The results of this analysis highlight the urgent need to advance both in issues related to climate change mitigation (emission reduction) and in promoting measures to adapt to high temperatures,” said Dr. Pierre Masselot, lead author of the study, according to Science Daily. He emphasized that rapid cuts to carbon emissions are essential, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Mediterranean.
Currently, cold temperatures cause more deaths than heat in Europe, but this balance is shifting due to global warming. The Guardian reports that as temperatures rise, heat-related deaths are increasing rapidly while cold-related deaths decrease slowly. The increase in heat-related mortality is expected to far exceed the reduction in cold-related deaths, resulting in a net increase in mortality across the continent.
The study highlights that even with adaptation efforts, such as increased air conditioning and more green spaces, it may not be enough to offset the increased health risks due to heat exposure.
“This study provides compelling evidence that the sharp increase in heat-related deaths will far exceed any decrease related to cold, resulting in a net increase in mortality across Europe,” said Professor Antonio Gasparrini, a co-author of the research, according to Euronews. He pointed out that theories suggesting beneficial effects of climate change are unfounded and that urgent mitigation policies are necessary.
While southern Europe faces a grave threat, some northern regions might see a different trend. Most cities in the British Isles and Scandinavian countries could see a net decrease in temperature-related deaths, with London projected to have 27,455 fewer deaths due to milder winters reducing cold-related mortality.
The Mediterranean, Central Europe, and the Balkans are identified as the most vulnerable areas to the increase in deaths due to heat.
This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq