All eyes will be on New York’s 16th District during Tuesday’s Democratic primary election in the final showdown for a seat in Congress between incumbent Rep. Jamaal Bowman and Westchester County Executive George Latimer, who have fought over Israel since Latimer entered the race in December in the wake of October 7.
Bowman is seen as the most vulnerable member of the “Squad,” the group of outspoken progressive Democrats that is uniformly critical of Israel and its conduct of the war. Bowman has accused Israel of “genocide” and expressed doubt about reports of sexual violence committed by Hamas during and after its attack, to which he has since apologized for that statement. But Bowman has also reportedly said he plans to endorse the movement to boycott Israel and routinely accuses his pro-Israel critics of acting out of racism.
The race has attracted millions of dollars in outside campaign spending by political action committees affiliated with the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC and other groups including the Jewish Democratic Council of America and Democratic Majority for Israel.
Halie Soifer, JDCA CEO, told The Jerusalem Post on Monday that Bowman has become marginalized, moving too far to the Left and no longer representing the Democratic Party on issues surrounding Israel and antisemitism.
It’s unusual for JDCA to get involved in primary elections as the group typically focuses on the general election, electing Democrats and defeating Republicans.
However, Soifer said this race demonstrates that if a candidate’s views are not aligned with the party and too far to the Left on any issue, including Israel, they may have trouble getting elected.
New York’s 16th District is 13% Jewish and Jews tend to vote at a higher rate than the general voting population, Soifer said, noting how Jewish voter turnout impacted the February special election in New York’s 3rd District between incumbent Democratic Rep. Tom Suoizzi and Republican Mazi Philips.
“It made a difference in that special election that flipped a seat in February, and it will make a difference tomorrow and likely ensure George Latimer’s victory,” Soifer said.
JDCA is optimistic about Latimer’s victory not only because he’s ahead in the polls, but because of their direct voter engagement with over 20,000 district voter contacts through phone calls and texts.
“We are getting a very strong sense that especially among Jewish voters, who will make a difference in this district, that there’s overwhelming support for Latimer,” Soifer added.
October 7 and its aftermath changed certain election dynamics, Soifer said, in that Israel has become an issue that people are voting on whereas it hasn’t typically been a high-priority issue on which Jews were specifically voting.
Reshuffling Democrat voters' priorities
Domestic policy issues like defense of democracy and abortion access were the top two issues for Jewish voters in the 2022 election, but Israel has moved up in prioritization among Jewish voters and what issues they’re thinking about when deciding what candidate to support, according to Soifer.
“[Israel] does feel like the defining characteristic of this moment and this election, because October 7 and its aftermath is still an issue that is front and center for Jewish Americans and for so many others,” Soifer said. “It’s hard to say whether that will continue, but it will likely continue through at least November 5.”
In a conversation on Monday with the Post, Democratic Majority For Israel president Mark Mellman said there is no question that the outcome of this election is critically important to the future of the pro-Israel cause in the Democratic Party and described several defining components of the race.
First and most importantly, Mellman told the Post, is that Latimer is an exceptionally strong candidate who was well-known and highly respected before the race.
Secondly, according to Mellman, Bowman has emerged as an extremely divisive figure not just with respect to Israel but with the greater Biden agenda.
“If George Latimer wins this election, it will send a very clear message that being pro-Israel is not just wise policy, it’s also smart politics. If Bowman were to win this race, it would send the opposite message that being pro-Israel is not good politics,” Mellman said. “That is a message that we cannot afford to send.”