Former vice president and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a clear lead over incumbent President Donald Trump in four key major battleground states, including Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to a New York Times/Sienna poll released on Sunday.
The poll also shows that Biden is in a much better position electorally if compared to Hilary Clinton in the run-up to the 2016 election, with the traditionally Democratic-leaning states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania giving Trump his victory by a very narrow margin in all three.
The boost in Biden's favor also comes as voters who did not participate in the previous election in 2016 have been showing up in large numbers.
Broken down by battleground state, Biden is ahead by 11 points in Wisconsin: 52% for Biden and 41% supporting Trump. In the pivotal swing state of Florida, Biden is ahead by 3 points: 47% in Biden's favor, compared to 44% for Trump. In Pennsylvania, Biden is ahead by 6, with 49% supporting Biden and 43% supporting Trump. Finally, in the traditionally Republican-leaning state of Arizona, which hasn't been won by a Democrat since former President Bill Clinton in 1996, Biden is ahead also by 6%, beating Trump 49% to 43%.
The New York Times noted that Biden is heading into the election in the strongest position to win for a presidential candidate since 2008, when Barack Obama won big in both the electoral college and popular vote. Similarly, Trump's ability to win the presidency is further diminished by a very narrow path to getting 270 Electoral College votes, making a loss of a few swing states likely leading to his defeat.
In Michigan, another state carried by Trump in 2016, most public polls also show him trailing by a significant margin. Among Trump's base of support – Whites without a university education and rural conservatives – support remains firm, but also dwarfed by an avalanche of support for Biden stemming from women, people of color, voters in the cities and the suburbs, young people, seniors and new voters.
Nevertheless, Democrats are still worried about the alleged "shy Trump voters" – those reluctant to express their political opinion to polling firms, who apparently played a role in his victory in 2016.