After former US president Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he will "probably be arrested" for hush money he paid a porn star in 2016, many people around the world began to wonder how Trump's criminal affairs will affect his intention to run for the presidential elections in 2024 and whether he will even be able to be elected president if he is indicted.
Trump is at the center of a major investigation by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg into a hush money payment made to the porn star by Trump's lawyer Michael Cohen in 2016.
The investigation has entered a new phase in recent weeks and now Bragg's office has contacted the president's lawyers to offer an opportunity to testify voluntarily, a sign that an indictment or indictments are likely in the works.
Trump himself predicted last night that he would be arrested next week.
"The far and away leading Republican candidate and former President of the United States of America will be arrested Tuesday of next week. Protesters, take back our nation!" Trump wrote on Truth Social in an angry message.
If Trump is charged with a crime, it would be the first time that the investigation into his inner circle (there have been several, the most famous of which led to multiple indictments against figures associated with the 2016 campaign) has actually incriminated the former president himself.
The Justice Department's protocol against impeaching a sitting president appears to have chilled any ability for the agency to do anything while he was in office, but when he lost the presidency in 2020, that opened the door to prosecution in both the Stormy Daniels case in 2016 and an investigation into the January 6 Capitol riots and Trump's efforts to nullify the election and its results.
What happens to 2024 race if Trump ends up criminally indicted?
The second investigation is ongoing, with the distinct possibility of potentially charging both Trump and members of his legal team and it raises the question: What happens to the 2024 race and to Trump's ability to participate if he ends up criminally indicted?
The short answer, not much would happen. There are no restrictions in the US Constitution that prevent anyone who has been indicted or convicted of a crime, or is even serving time, from running for, or winning the presidency.
Even if he is tried and convicted in one of the so-called "speed trials,' Trump could still run his presidential campaign from a prison cell.
What is much less clear is what would happen if he won in this scenario. Because as there are no restrictions in the Constitution for a person to run for president while he has been indicted, there is no explanation of what should happen in the event that he would win the election.
There is nothing in the document that would automatically grant Trump a reprieve from a prison sentence, except it's likely that any charges brought by federal authorities if still pending at the point Trump takes office for the second time, will be dropped due to the Justice Department's refusal to prosecute a sitting president.
Persecutory state-level charges are much more complicated and would fall outside Trump's pardon authority if they result in a conviction. If a conviction on state charges occurs alongside a Trump election victory, it will likely lead to a massive legal battle to determine whether there is a way for the former president to work his way out of office.
If Trump were unable to avoid this outcome, it would almost certainly lead to his impeachment or impeachment via the 25th Amendment. There are many duties and trappings of the presidency that would simply be impossible to operate or perform from a prison cell, viewing classified materials by name only.
Any potential conviction of Trump is still very far away. But the conversations he opened with his run for president despite multiple criminal investigations have already made parts of theoretical US constitutional law a far more real place than many pundits ever thought he would see.