SETH D. KAPLAN

Seth D. Kaplan is a leading expert on fragile states, political transitions, and conflict prevention. He is a professorial lecturer at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, and consultant to organizations such as the World Bank, US State Department, and OECD, as well as the governments of developing nations and NGOs. His latest book, Fragile Neighborhoods , offers a bold new vision for addressing social decline in America, one zip code at a time.
Smoke rises following a strike, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, April 1, 2026

Israel, US can’t bomb regime change, only defections and credible alternatives can - opinion

The opposition remains fragmented, though efforts by groups like the Iran Freedom Congress and figures such as Reza Pahlavi point toward a possible unifying framework – one that remains incomplete.

APRIL 3, 2026
A demonstrator holds a placard during a protest against the Iranian government held by supporters of the Iranian royal family in exile, who marched through central London past the Iranian embassy to the Israeli embassy, in London, Britain, March 8, 2026

Iran's Islamic regime will not fall without a suitable alternative - opinion

Authoritarian regimes collapse only when citizens, elites, and enough members of the security forces believe that an alternative political order is both desirable and within reach.

MARCH 21, 2026
A WOMAN holds a placard with a picture of Reza Pahlavi as people gather outside the Iranian Embassy in London after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed.

Airstrikes won’t topple Iran’s regime – Israel strategy must focus on political change - opinion

Despite its existential stake, Israel has no coherent political strategy for increasing the likelihood of regime change.

MARCH 2, 2026

Israel’s delicate role in Iran’s moment of fragility - opinion

Iran’s regime is weakening. Israel must act with patience and discretion, supporting change without overtly interfering in Tehran.

JANUARY 25, 2026
Iranian protestors in Abdanan. January 6, 2026.