18 pro-Trump rallies result in 30,000 COVID-19 patients, 700 dead – report

Stanford researchers say communities where events took place paid high price.

By MAAYAN JAFFE-HOFFMAN
US PRESIDENT Donald Trump throws a face mask from the stage during a campaign rally in Sanford, Florida, on October 12. (photo credit: JONATHAN ERNST / REUTERS)
US PRESIDENT Donald Trump throws a face mask from the stage during a campaign rally in Sanford, Florida, on October 12.
(photo credit: JONATHAN ERNST / REUTERS)
Eighteen pro-Trump rallies that took place between June 20 and September 22 could have led to the deaths of more than 700 Americans, a study by researchers in the Department of Economics and Stanford University showed.
The report, published October 30, was meant to investigate the effects of large group meetings on the spread of the novel coronavirus.
“To capture the effects of subsequent contagion within the pertinent communities, our analysis encompasses up to 10 post-rally weeks for each event,” the researchers explained. “Our method is based on a collection of regression models, one for each event, that capture the relationships between post-event outcomes and pre-event characteristics, including demographics and the trajectory of COVID-19 cases, in similar counties.”
The results: an average increase of more than 250 confirmed coronavirus cases per 100,000 residents – meaning a total of more than 30,000 cases. Moreover, when county-specific post-event death rates are examined, the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths – although necessarily among attendees.
The rallies that were examined took place in Tulsa, Oklahoma; Phoenix, Arizona; Mankato, Minnesota; Oshkosh, Wisconsin; Yuma, Arizona; Old Forge, New York; Londonderry, New Hampshire; Latrobe, Pennsylvania; Winston-Salem, North Carolina; Freeland, Michigan; Minden, Louisiana; Henderson, Nevada; Mosinee, Wisconsin; Bemidji, Wisconsin; Fayetteville, North Carolina; Swanton, Ohio; Vandalia, Illinois; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Some of the rallies were inside and some outside.
According to Wikipedia, during this year’s US elections campaign, a total of Trump 323 rallies were held, with total attendance of more than 1.4 million people.
The report notes that “the dynamics of COVID-19 are complex,” which leads to a margin of error. Nonetheless, the researchers point out that there have been other, similar studies and that in most cases, the conclusions of those studies corroborate their own – that the Trump rallies are often followed by an increase in the spread of coronavirus.
“Our analysis strongly supports the warnings and recommendations of public health officials concerning the risk of COVID-19 transmission at large group gatherings, particularly when the degree of compliance with guidelines concerning the use of masks and social distancing is low,” the report concluded. “The communities in which Trump rallies took place paid a high price in terms of disease and death.”