Hebrew U. research finds flu outbreak pattern during the winter
What they found was that weather prediction models were more effective in predicting flu outbreaks than singular variables such as temperature or rain.
By OMRI RONFILE PHOTO: Nurse Jeff Gates processes a patient sample at a drive-through testing clinic for coronavirus, flu and RSV, currently by appointment for employees at UW Medical Center Northwest in Seattle, Washington, U.S. March 9, 2020(photo credit: REUTERS/LINDSEY WASSON)
New research done by scholars from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and researchers from Jordan, the Palestinian Authority and Germany tested the connection between the weather during the winter and flu outbreaks. The researchers found that weather prediction models were more effective in predicting flu outbreaks than singular variables such as temperature or rain.To determine this, they looked at positive flu tests from various hospitals, and managed to discover a relatively consistent pattern of flu outbreaks over the last several years.Since Jordan and the PA don't have as robust a testing system, they checked the amount of time the word "flu" (in Arabic) was searched in these areas, taking into account how such searches may be affected by world events and unrelated outbreaks.Researchers found a high correlation between their weather patterns and flu outbreaks, with data gathered between the years 2008-2017 matching patterns observed during 2004-2007.This research can allow scientists to more accurately predict flu outbreaks and thus allow better allocation of vaccines and resources.
