Israel-Hamas War: What happened on day 124?

Hamas has been regularly accused of manipulating the death count in Gaza throughout the war, but with independent verification being nearly impossible, such accusations have been hard to prove.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy released a report at the end of January that attempted to show the discrepancies in the official fatality report's figures, and that such discrepancies were most likely caused by manipulations.

The report begins by stating that Hamas's figures have been previously quite similar to both the UN's official figures and Israel's figures, which is why they have been given so much credence by international organizations, however reporting since the start of the ground invasion on October 27 has become less rigorous and less reliable.

President Biden questioned the figures released before the ground invasion, saying he doesn't doubt that innocents have been killed but that he has "no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using."

Reports before the ground invasion seem to have been accurate, with all but 281 fatalities having identification numbers, genders, and ages.

The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry stopped reporting fatalities on November 10, resuming its reports on December 2, although with significantly less detail.

Gaza Strip (credit: REUTERS/FADI SHANA)

The report suggests that reports for all fatalities after November 10 lack credibility due to their reliance on "reliable media sources," which the report says are largely composed of news clips found online or on TV. UN reports have not mentioned that they rely on such media reports for their data.

The report warns, "Here a cautionary note is necessary: even as most combatants are men, most Gazan men are still civilians, rendering the overall number of men killed an imperfect proxy for Hamas fighters."

Citing discrepancies in reporting on the deaths from the al-Ahli Hospital blast, when Israel was falsely accused of attacking the hospital, as well as general inconsistencies, the report finds that the number of male fatalities has been manipulated, towards underreporting.

For example, during the al-Ahli hospital blast in which Hamas claims 471 were killed, Hamas figures show only 7 other people were killed throughout Gaza during the same 24-hour period as the blast (478). This is completely inconsistent with figures released by the UN saying 62 were killed in two airstrikes the same night in the Jabalia refugee camp, which should make the total 533 not the 478 published by Hamas.

In another event, the numbers released in the same report were completely inconsistent with each other,  with summaries on one page saying 7,028 had been killed, while a few pages later the totals on the graphs added up to different figures with none equaling 7,028.

Following the ground invasion discrepancies increased

Following the invasion on October 27, the report says discrepancies became more common.

On October 29, two days into the invasion, the Health Ministry released figures that showed an unexplained decrease in the total number of male fatalities of 72 from 2,231 to 2,159. On November 5, there was another revision down of 274 from 2,890 to 2,616.

The rate of fatalities across genders also altered dramatically following the invasion, before October 27 male fatalities were about 34%, while females were at 25% and children at 41%, while afterward, males comprised around 25%, females 33%, and children 42%.

"The Health Ministry figures released since November 11 should be viewed with extra skepticism given the ministry’s acknowledgment that the figures for northern Gaza come from “reliable media sources,” which  are unverified and extremely unlikely to include militant deaths."

As the war progressed large discrepancies began to appear between the Hamas-run Health Ministry and the Hamas-run Government Media Office (GMO), with a report from the Health Ministry claiming 5,577 adult men had been killed and a GMO report which showed 4,212 men killed at most.

From December 2 to December 8 the GMO reduced the total male fatalities by over 1000 (from 4,563 to 3,499).

By January 1 the Health Ministry was reporting that before November 11, 6,088 men had died in Gaza, the GMO reported on the same day that a total of 6,098 men had been killed by January 1, implying only 10 men had died across 51 days of fighting from November 11 until January 1.

The report also challenges the validity of the figures themselves saying that 61% of the fatality reports after November 10 come from media reports which are highly susceptible to manipulation.

When compared to IDF figures, which claim 9,000 fighters killed in Gaza, the discrepancy becomes that much larger. The report says to treat IDF numbers with some skepticism, however, even then the 6,088 male fatalities claimed by Hamas, which will include civilians, fall far short of Israeli estimates of just the militants killed. 

However, it is important to remember that producing accurate up-to-date fatalities during a war is very difficult and revisions are to be expected, as occurred when Israel revised down the total killed on October 7. The report even cites this as an example of why accurate reporting of fatalities often takes significant time.

The report concludes that the motives for reducing the number of male fatalities are clear. 

"What can be said for certain is that Hamas-produced statistics are inconsistent, imprecise, and appear to have been systematically manipulated to downplay the number of militants killed and to exaggerate the proportion of noncombatants confirmed as dead," the report concludes.

IDF and Border Control troops killed a senior terrorist operative wanted by security forces, Muazzam Ali, and two other terrorists in the Nur a-Shams refugee camp in the Menashe regional Brigade, the IDF Spokesperson's unit and Police Spokesperson's Unit said in a joint statement on Wednesday. 

Troops were directed by the Shin Bet for over four hours. The fighters carried out a "pressure cooker" procedure on the building where the wanted man was barricaded, and after using various means and an exchange of fire, the terrorist was eliminated.

In addition, the troops killed two armed terrorists who tried to escape from said building.

During the operation, the fighters located weapons that were transferred to the security forces for further inspection.

No casualties were reported, according to the statement.  Ali was suspected of shooting at Israeli forces in the past in addition to other terrorist activities.

Six women who were kidnapped to Gaza in October and were released during the November ceasefire deal with Hamas held a press conference on Wednesday in a plea to the Israeli government to return the hostages. 

Sharon Aloni-Kunyo, 34, from kibbutz Nir Oz, who was released with her two three-year-old daughters, Yuli and Emma, from captivity, is still waiting for her husband, David, to return.

She said, "136 hostages are waiting without oxygen, food, or hope to be saved," adding, "The price is high, but abandoning the hostages is a historical stain."

Nili Margalit, 41, from Nir Oz, the nurse who spent her time in captivity aiding fellow hostages, said, "If they don't return home, everyone will know that they live in a country that is not committed to their security; that solidarity is dead.

"If the hostages do not return, every Israeli is next in line," she continued. 

Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh is expected to land in Cairo on Thursday ahead of additional talks over the hostage deal, the Al Araby al-Jadeed news outlet reported on Wednesday, citing a Palestinian source. 

Israel won’t accept Hamas’s latest terms for a hostage deal, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters on Wednesday, but he did not rule out continued negotiations for an acceptable agreement to secure the release of over 130 hostages held in the enclave.

“From what I saw, even you would say no” to Hamas’s offer, Netanyahu told the reporter who quizzed him on it.

Israel is within striking distance of a complete victory in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday, with total triumph being only a "matter of months away."

Further, the prime minister confirmed that the IDF had been ordered to begin operating in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip.

Netanyahu renewed a pledge to destroy Hamas, saying there was no alternative for Israel but causing the collapse of Hamas. "The day after is the day after Hamas. All of Hamas," he told a news conference.

United Nations 'alarmed' by IDF operations in Rafah

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Wednesday that he is "especially alarmed" by reports that the IDF intends to focus next on Rafah in Gaza.

"Such an action would exponentially increase what is already a humanitarian nightmare with untold regional consequences," Guterres told the 193-member UN General Assembly as he again called for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire and the unconditional release of all hostages.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks on February 7, 2024 (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/POOL)

Earlier this week, an Israeli official said on Sunday that the IDF would coordinate with Egypt and seek ways of evacuating most of the displaced people northward ahead of any ground sweep of Rafah.

However, despite the steady flow of reports in recent weeks that the IDF would immediately take action with ground troops in Rafah, The Jerusalem Post has learned that such moves could still take time and significant negotiations.

Reuters and Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this report.

Hamas's demands for the proposed hostage deal were prematurely published by Hezbollah, Channel 12 expert and commentator Ehud Ya’ari claimed on Wednesday.

"We have to look at what happened backward. We said in advance Yahya Sinwar will give his answer, but other people who are not in the Strip will formulate it in a different way," he noted.

He claimed the document was released against the wishes of Hamas: "Hamas did not want to release this document. It was published by Hezbollah. Yesterday, Qatar's foreign minister rushed to report and speak with the Iranian Foreign Minister. Hamas did not plan for things to be published like this. I have a feeling, from the relationship with them, that they were a little surprised."

"As far as Hamas is concerned, this should not have been published. This is the beginning of a difficult debate that can take time. It’s not that they submitted a document, and it is final. They will have to continue bargaining, and it will be a difficult bargaining," he added.

"It is important to note that when the Egyptians announce that the talks will resume, they also do so indirectly. I still do not have such confirmation on our side," he added. 

He reiterated that Sinwar wishes the war to end at all costs: "The impression is that Sinwar is looking for a way to stop the war at any cost. He isn't necessarily looking for a temporary pause. Even now, when they are sitting in Cairo, the final decision will be his."

Israel is within striking distance of a complete victory in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday, with total triumph being only a "matter of months away."

Further, the prime minister confirmed that the IDF had been ordered to begin operating in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant hinted that Israel could reject Hamas’s terms for a hostage deal to free over 130 captives it is holding in Gaza.

"Hamas' answer was formulated so that Israel would refuse it,” Gallant stated. “Its position will lead to the continuation of the war and send our forces to other places in Gaza soon.”

He spoke in advance of back-to-back press conferences Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken plan to hold on Wednesday night.

These statements come less than a day after Hamas issued its counterproposal to a US-Israeli framework understanding by which to free over 130 hostages the terror group is holding in Gaza.

Hamas’s insistence on a prolonged pause to the war of 135 days, a permanent ceasefire, and a complete IDF withdrawal from the enclave, doused optimism that the release of the captives was around the corner.

It pointed to the complexity of what is likely to be a protracted process.  

Netanyahu will speak to reporters in Jerusalem at 7:30 p.m. while Blinken will talk to journalists at 8:30 p.m. in Tel Aviv.