Hezbollah agrees to withdraw beyond Litani, Iran's response to be 'definitive and painful'

Senior officials within the Lebanese Kataeb Party (the Phalanges) and Lebanese Forces believe that weakening Hezbollah’s economic capabilities may destabilize its hold over its base of supporters.

A leaked draft of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was broadcast by Israel’s Kan on October 30. The draft is an “announcement of a cessation of hostilities and related commitments” that could happen between Lebanon and Israel.

The Houthis have made gains from inserting themselves into the Israel-Hamas war, analysts in a report from The Wall Street Journal claim. 

While Israel's attacks during the widening war have mostly been targeting Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, the Houthis, in contrast, have so far avoided a similar fate. They've launched drones and missiles over 80 vessels in the Red Sea since the war's start, successfully snagging global trade and increasing global shipping costs.

Analysts the report cited claim that the Houthis have “renewed domestic and regional legitimacy" by aligning themselves with Gaza.

“One of the unfortunate offshoots of the Gaza conflict is…that the Houthis have doubled down on their contacts with other malign actors in the region and beyond,” said Timothy Lenderking, the US special envoy for Yemen. 

Lenderking, in an interview, called the trend “very alarming” and said the US is talking with regional partners about how to respond. 

A Houthi follower holds a rocket launcher as others carry a cutout banner, portraying the Galaxy Leader cargo ship which was seized by Houthis, during a parade as part of a 'popular army' mobilization campaign by the movement, in Sanaa, Yemen, February 7, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/KHALED ABDULLAH)

Houthis have expanded at an alarming rate

The Israel-Hamas war has allowed the Houthis to expand rapidly. The Wall Street Journal claims that Houthi recruiting numbers within Yemen have increased. Additionally, earlier this year, the Iraqi terrorist group Kataib Hezbollah agreed to work with the Houthis to strike Israel. 

“The Houthis have morphed from sandal-wearing fighters to rock stars. These are people who you want to be associated with right now,” said Michael Knights, co-founder of the Militia Spotlight platform, to The Wall Street Journal.

A recent UN report proved extensive Houthi cooperation with other terrorist groups in the Middle East, namely the presence of Houthi joint-operations centers in Iraq and Lebanon to synchronize military actions of Iran-backed terror groups.

The UN report further stated that the Houthis have an agreement with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula regarding weapons transfers and that the two groups are discussing potential joint operations against the Aden-based Yemeni government and other maritime targets.

Saudi Arabia, Oman and Djibouti, namely, are concerned with this development, Lenderking said, and further stated that the US is discussing with its allies how to block arms shipments. 

The UN report claimed that the Houthis had gone from a "localized armed group with limited capacity to a powerful military organization." 

While Israel and the US have done some strikes against the Houthis, The Wall Street Journal says that they haven't "done much" to flatten their capabilities.

Russia's role

Russian involvement with the Houthis is another concerning development showing the terrorist group's international reach. 

The Houthis used targeting data provided by Russia to attack Western ships in the Red Sea earlier this year, The Wall Street Journal previously reported. 

Additionally, earlier this year, a senior IRGC missile and drone program commander was evacuated from Hodeida port in April by a Russian warship, The Wall Street Journal cited a Western security official as saying. The Uzs has offered $15 million for the commander, Abdul Reza Shahlai, who is believed to have plotted an assassination attempt on the Saudi ambassador in Washington as well as an attack that would have killed 200 US civilians.

Iran has continued to broker talks between Russia and the Houthis regarding a transfer of anti-ship missiles, Reuters cited three Western and regional sources as saying. Russia is reportedly considering giving the Houthis the missiles in retaliation to the US giving Ukraine arms to strike within Russia. 

"Russia is negotiating with the Houthis for the transfer of Yakhont supersonic anti-ship missiles," said a Western intelligence source to Reuters. "The Iranians are brokering the talks but do not want to have their signature over it."

According to Reuters, Russia has yet to decide to transfer the Yakhont missiles – also known as P-800 Oniks - which experts said would allow the militant group to strike commercial vessels in the Red Sea more and increase the threat to the Western warships defending them.

Lenderking said Moscow is “using Yemen as a way to get back at the United States.” 

Reuters contributed to this report. 

Iran will respond to Israel's recent attacks with a "definitive and painful response" that could come before the US presidential election next Tuesday, a source told CNN on Wednesday. 

Key Hamas operative Hassam Malach was eliminated in Tulkarm, the IDF announced in a joint statement with the Shin Bet and Israel Police.

According to the statement, Malach was responsible for terror attacks "in the immediate time frame."

Malach was a leader of the Hamas terrorist infrastructure in Tulkarm, and was responsible for planning attacks that were to be carried out on the first anniversary of the October 7 massacre.

Despite Hezbollah’s declarations throughout the war, the terrorist organization has agreed to drop its demands and is ready to withdraw beyond the Litani River, Lebanon's MTV website, which is associated with Hezbollah opponents, reported Wednesday night.

The report indicated that Hezbollah agreed to establish a demilitarized zone, with all its weapons to be moved beyond the river. It was also claimed that Hezbollah no longer insists on being directly connected to events in Gaza. 

MTV Lebanon noted that a three-day ceasefire draft is being discussed in Lebanon, and American officials are expected to present it to Israel in the coming days. It was also noted that Amos Hochstein, Biden's envoy to the region, told Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati that he sensed a change in Netanyahu's position, which gave him hope regarding the contacts. 

Regarding this change, Hochstein said he would travel to Israel tomorrow.

Hezbollah members marching with flags during ceremony. (credit: Wikimedia Commons)

However, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was quoted in Arab media saying, "It's out of the question to change the wording of UN Resolution 1701 even by one word. The ball is now in Netanyahu's court. I've completed all points related to the ceasefire, army deployment, and implementation of Resolution 1701. We're waiting for Hochstein's understandings with Netanyahu." 

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Additionally, Lebanon's Prime Minister addressed the war that began with Hezbollah's terrorist organization firing over a year ago, saying, "We hope that within hours or days a ceasefire agreement will be reached." 

Senior Israeli sources told Maariv on Wednesday that the American administration is very active in both directions: in efforts to advance negotiations for a hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza, and also in attempting to bring about a ceasefire arrangement in the north. 

This, according to the sources, stems from the desire to achieve significant progress before the US elections on November 5. American sources told Maariv that the Israeli side has shown willingness and interest in moving forward with an agreement in the north. Still, it's doubtful that the work will be completed before the elections.

The proposed deal

According to reports, White House envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to arrive in Israel and Lebanon in the coming days, hoping to reach final agreements before the US elections. Under the reported agreement, northern residents would return to their homes, while most IDF forces would withdraw from Lebanon. 

On the other hand, government sources express skepticism. According to these sources, "Israel will not back down from any of the demands it set as conditions for reaching an arrangement. At this point, we don't identify Hezbollah's willingness to agree to the outline and conditions we presented, with all due respect to the American administration's investment and effort." 

As mentioned, Israel estimates that the northern arrangement won't be achieved by the US elections, and after the elections, the administration is expected to apply massive pressure on Israel, including measures at the UN and in weapons supply.

Avichai Stern, mayor of Kiryat Shmona, made a firm statement to city residents expressing his opposition to immediate return. 

"They won't buy us with money that will run out quickly," Stern said, "Don't return until we tell you to return and not a minute before." 

Moshe Davidovich, head of Mateh Asher Regional Council and chairman of the Confrontation Line forum, also responded to the diplomatic talks, saying, "I don't interfere with the IDF's military considerations, but at the political level – the real threat to our residents hasn't been removed! There's direct anti-tank missile fire on border communities, and it's still happening."

Following Monday's approval of the UNRWA ban laws, which passed with an overwhelming majority of coalition and opposition Knesset members, Israel estimates that the American administration won't be satisfied with criticism and condemnations against the action but is expected to implement ‘consequences.’ The assessment is that what's being considered in Washington is passing a binding resolution in the UN Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

French President Emmanuel Macron has been talking about the need and intention to raise such a resolution in the UN Security Council for some time. Israel has estimated that so far, the initiative hasn't been advanced at the request of the American administration, which isn't interested in sharp measures before the elections. 

According to an Israeli source, "The assessment is that we'll see the implications of approving the UNRWA laws after November 5. With no low probability, after the elections, the Americans will give the green light to advance the ceasefire in the north, including a binding Security Council resolution. Ahead of this move, President Biden's special envoy, Amos Hochstein, has again arrived in the region."

"What's being advanced and what will likely come up is what's called 'Resolution 1701+', giving Israel some freedom of action to prevent Hezbollah from rearming. There's an assessment that shortly after the elections, an effort will be made to impose a ceasefire in the north on Israel based on Resolution 1701+, with the next threat being a weapons embargo."

Following the Israel Air Force strike in Iran last Saturday as part of Operation “Days of Repentance,” Maariv on Wednesday spoke with key figures involved in the mission. These include a technical officer at the Ramon Airbase tasked with preparing the jets from the 119 Squadron, an officer from the control tower overseeing the takeoff and landing, and a fighter pilot who conducted an aerial strike.

Maj. R., a technical officer in the 119 Squadron, recounted the pre-mission preparations, which included “exams, particularly for maintenance of the munitions and aircraft.” He explained, “We select the ammunition sequence by categories—all to ensure smooth functioning when deployed.” Even before takeoff, Maj. R. sensed this mission carried “significant implications for the battle.”

“I am conscious of the responsibility for the lives of those in the cockpit and the optimal performance of the munitions when required,” he shared, adding, “These thoughts stay with you throughout the preparation week, and afterward, there’s relief that it all functioned as expected.”

Reflecting on the moments before the launch, Maj. R. described the atmosphere near the aircraft, “The immense excitement is tangible; you lock eyes with each other, filled with anticipation and a bit of apprehension regarding the munitions. Then you wait for the return, see the signal that everything worked, and breathe.”

Maj. R shared that he didn't have any concerns of note, stating that “it’s part of the role to remain alert.” He emphasized that the squadron’s commitment is consistent for training or complex operations. “These jets are armed and ready to go up with the correct munitions.”

A screengrab shows an Israel Air Force plane, which the Israeli army says is departing to carry out strikes on Iran, from a handout video released on October 26, 2024. (credit: ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

'The highest achievement of my career'

Maj. S., a fighter pilot in 119 Squadron, disclosed that the squadron had trained “for a mission of this type over a long period.” He noted, “This specific strike might have been unexpected, but we were prepared.”

Reflecting on the buildup, he explained, “As the launch moment approached, we trained even more closely on execution details and mission models, so there was very little difference between our readiness that night and our standard preparedness.”

Originally from the US, Maj. S. mentioned his motivation was more unique, saying, “I am driven by a sense of national duty.” He called the strike “the most significant action and the highest achievement of my career.”

“During that waiting period, when there’s not much else to do, that’s when your thoughts race and the pressure builds, knowing there’s no room for error—many people are counting on you, and there’s a lot of responsibility on your shoulders.” He described this feeling as “very powerful. The whole country doesn’t know what’s about to happen, and I’m there personally in the plane.”

Although most civilians didn’t know what was coming, S believed “they understand that our forces will reach anywhere in the Middle East and beyond to defend the country.”

Maj. S. felt the weight of his responsibility, knowing that the “entire country remains unaware, yet trusts us.” Although most citizens may not fully understand the mission specifics, he believes the public is assured by the air force's commitment to protecting the country.

 “When striking in enemy airspace, it becomes second nature. The focus is on hitting the target accurately,” Maj. S. said. However, as he began the return flight to Israel, he realized the magnitude of his actions. “I thought, ‘What a remarkable thing we accomplished.’”

In closing, Maj. S. expressed confidence in the air force's capabilities, assuring Israeli citizens, “We are prepared to operate anywhere, reaching anyone posing a threat. Our training, development, and technological advancements are constantly ongoing to ensure this.”

Maj. Anael, an air traffic controller, directed the takeoffs and landings. She described the experience as “powerful” and a historic moment for everyone involved. While monitoring, Anael and her colleagues focused on “launching the remaining aircraft, anticipating their return, and keeping the field fully operational under heightened threat conditions.”

Anael reinforced the airbase’s readiness and dedication, stating, “We are prepared to defend and do whatever it takes.”

At a time when the international community is already accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza, why should one more global crisis over the Palestinians matter to an Israeli public engaged in an existential battle for its borders?

Particularly one that marks a symbolic victory for the Israeli Right, such as the two Knesset votes taken Monday to shut down the UN Relief and Works Agency operations in territory under its control after 75 years of operation.

For right-wing Israelis who have long viewed UNRWA as a symbol of the Palestinians’ desire for self-determination from “the River to the Sea,” the Knesset vote marked the end of a decades-long campaign highlighting the dangers of the agency.

The move robs the Palestinians of a central humanitarian service agency funded by the international community through an independent channel from entangling issues regarding the Palestinian Authority. It comes at a time of acute crisis, particularly in Gaza, where UNRWA has been one of the vital arteries for basic services.

The shuttering of those services in east Jerusalem, Gaza, and the West Bank within 90 days, without a clear alternative as to how to provide services for the 2.3 million Palestinian refugees it services in those territories, creates new crises for Israel even as it replaces others.

UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini attends a briefing on the humanitarian situation in the Palestinian Territory at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, June 25, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/DENIS BALIBOUSE)

Here are eight takes on what UNRWA is and why and how it has placed Israel in the international hot seat.

1. When was UNRWA created and what does it do?

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency was created in 1949 to provide services to more than 700,000 Palestinians displaced as a result of the 1948 War of Independence. The main UN High Commission for Refugees opened only in 1950. The two organizations have operated concurrently and were never merged.

Today, UNRWA confers Palestinian refugee status on those original displaced persons as well as their descendants, servicing 5.9 million. It operates in six areas, helping 568,730 live in Syria, 489,292 in Lebanon, 2,307,011 in Jordan, 1,476,706 in Gaza, and 912,879 in the West Bank and east Jerusalem. It provides education and health care as well as basic humanitarian necessities including food with funding from member states of the UN.

2. Does the Knesset vote shutter UNRWA in Gaza, east Jerusalem, and the West Bank?

Yes. UNRWA’s mandate to operate is granted by the UN General Assembly, and only that 193-member body can strip it of its right to operate. Since 1967, Israel has had the power to pragmatically shut UNRWA down in east Jerusalem, Gaza, and the West Bank because it controls those three territories.

UNRWA needs permission from Israel to bring supplies into those areas for its personnel to operate there.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres confirmed this in a letter he sent to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the Knesset vote. Neither Netanyahu or Foreign Minister Israel Katz were present for the vote.

The legislation itself can be appealed to the High Court of Justice. Guterres told Netanyahu that the legislation would “prevent UNRWA from continuing its essential work” in east Jerusalem, Gaza, and the West Bank.

3. Why does Israel want to close UNRWA?

The Israeli Right has long argued that UNRWA plays a destructive role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, charging that it allows textbooks that incite against Jews and Israel. It has also taken issue with its decision to grant refugee status to descendants of the original Palestinian refugees, creating an ever-growing population that expects a right of return to sovereign Israel.

Granting that right to such a large population of Palestinians would destroy Israel’s identity as a Jewish democracy. Even on a pragmatic level, the Right has argued, UNRWA is not an efficient or effective service provider.

The push to close UNRWA received overwhelming Knesset support with 92 out of 120 parliamentarians supporting the first bill and 88 backing the second, with the organization’s opponents charging that the Gaza war unveiled the extent to which Hamas was intertwined with UNRWA including finding Hamas weapons in its schools and facilities.

The Foreign Ministry wrote on Wednesday that Hamas “has infiltrated UNRWA in Gaza widely and deeply. UNRWA employees were involved in the horrific October 7 massacre. Many of UNRWA’s workers are Hamas operatives.” Israel has also charged that some UNRWA workers were involved in the kidnapping of Israelis on October 7.

UNRWA, which opened an investigation into those claims and fired some of its workers, has said that its 30,000 staff members in the region are expected to “adhere to UN values and core humanitarian principles” and is investigating claims of violations and connections to terror.

It has noted that it has a no-tolerance stance on hate speech and that its schools reflect the value of tolerance. UNRWA has further said that as part of the ongoing conflict, many parties have violated the neutrality of their school and institutions.

UNRWA proponents have argued that the claims against the organization are political in nature and designed to disconnect the Palestinians from representative bodies. They have further noted that closing the premier Palestinian neutral service provider will not diminish the Palestinian drive for self-determination or the desire of the refugees for the right to return to their homeland.

4. Does Israel risk restricted US military aid?

Yes. Under the US Foreign Assistance Act, Washington cannot give military aid to countries that directly or indirectly impede the delivery of US humanitarian assistance.

The US told Israel in a letter on October 13 that it must take steps within 30 days to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza or face potential restrictions on US military aid.

It also warned Israel in the letter against adopting the UNRWA ban because of the humanitarian impact on Gaza and the West Bank, although that was not listed as a requirement for avoiding US action.

“There could be consequences under US law and US policy for the implementation of this legislation,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters on Tuesday.

5. Is Israel now in violation of the UN charter?

Yes. Guterres, in his letter to Netanyahu, a copy of which was seen by The Jerusalem Post, details which UN obligations Israel has violated should it close UNRWA.

As a UN member, Guterres wrote, Israel is required under Article 2, Paragraph 5 of the UN Charter “to give UNRWA every assistance.”

The Knesset votes do not impact those obligations, he said, explaining that the UN still planned to hold Israel accountable for its promises in documents it has signed, including the “Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the United Nations, to which Israel has been a party since 21 February 1949.” That convention, Guterres wrote, is applicable to UNRWA.

The UN, he said, would continue to hold Israel to its promises from its 1967 Exchange of Letters with the UN, in which Israel granted the organization the right to operate within the territory it controlled. He also warned that Israel must provide diplomatic rights to UNRWA personnel and its facilities.

6. Is Israel in violation of international law?

Guterres indicated that he believed Israel was in violation of international by closing UNRWA and that Israeli domestic legislation could not alleviate Israel of that responsibility.

The International Court of Justice, however, is the actual arbiter on issues of international law. To that end, both Guterres and Norway have spoken of the possibility of referring the matter to the ICJ for an advisory opinion.

Norway has also already said that it is planning to put a resolution on the issue before the UN General Assembly.

7. Will Israel get kicked out of the UN?

Not automatically. There is nothing about the passage of the Knesset laws or the closing of UNRWA that automatically generates Israel’s explosion from the UN.

But it does open Israel to retributory actions by member states. The UN General Assembly could strip Israel of voting rights. Israel’s mission to the UN could lose its credentials, but only the UN Security Council can eject a member state from the UN. The US would likely veto such a move.

8. Israel could be liable for humanitarian funding to Palestinians

Israel could be responsible under international law for providing education, health care, and basic necessities to the Palestinians now serviced by UNRWA.

Legal expert Yuval Shany explained that as the force that controls the territory in which UNRWA operates, “Israel would be legally responsible to ensure that basic needs of the local population are met. To the extent that UNRWA is no longer able to provide many of the services that address those needs, it would fall on Israel to offer them through other means.”

Israel has hoped that other international groups would move in to service the Palestinians, one that would not have a perceived political agenda and would be more efficient in the provision of services.

The Foreign Ministry has noted that already other organizations have replaced UNRWA in Gaza, explaining that only 13% of the basic food supplies that enter the enclave are brought in by UNRWA. The fear, however, is that the international community would instead simply leave Israel to foot the bill and figure out how to provide the services.

It’s a move that would automatically increase Israel’s military control of Palestinian civilian life in the West Bank and Gaza. Such a step would only deepen Israel’s image as an occupying force at a time and increase the pressure for Palestinian statehood, at a time when the Jewish state is already under growing international pressure to accept a two-state resolution to the conflict.•

Reuters contributed to this report.

IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said the IDF should be bigger during a situational assessment in the Western Galilee on Wednesday.

“The IDF needs to be larger, both in regular forces and reserves, and therefore, we’re building more forces,” he said.

Halevi's comment comes amid the ongoing haredi draft exemption debates and discussions related to the IDF's existing manpower in operations in both Gaza and southern Lebanon. 

Halevi spoke about a haredi soldier from the Givati Brigade who was injured in Rafah.

“He wanted to enlist, though his family initially didn’t support him; from the moment he began, they embraced him wholeheartedly, standing by him before and certainly after his injury,” he said. 

IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi visit northern Israel. May 4, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

Halevi expressed support for more haredi soldiers

“And I’m telling you, our question is how we create many more like him. That’s what’s socially right, and I believe if we can grow from this war with the understanding that the IDF needs to be larger, there might be a very positive social transformation as well."

Halevi conducted the assessment with Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin. He also spoke with brigade commanders and reserve battalion commanders operating in Lebanon.