Israel must prepare for a direct confrontation with Turkey, according to the Nagel Committee's latest report on the defense budget and security strategy.
The committee, established by the government, warns that Turkey’s ambitions to restore its Ottoman-era influence could lead to heightened tensions with Israel, possibly escalating into conflict.
The report highlights the risk of Syrian factions aligning with Turkey, creating a new and potent threat to Israel’s security.
“The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat,” the report states, warning that Turkish-backed forces might act as proxies, fueling regional instability.
The committee’s assessment comes amid Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's increasingly assertive policies in the region, which some analysts view as antagonistic to Israel's interests.
A call for preparation
The Nagel Committee submitted its recommendations to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Monday, outlining a comprehensive strategy to address emerging threats.
The committee proposes increasing the defense budget by up to NIS 15 billion annually over the next five years to ensure the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are equipped to handle challenges posed by Turkey, alongside other regional threats.
Netanyahu addressed the report, stating, “We are witnessing fundamental changes in the Middle East. Iran has long been our greatest threat, but new forces are entering the arena, and we must be prepared for the unexpected. This report provides us with a roadmap to secure Israel’s future.”
Bolstering military capabilities
To prepare for a potential confrontation with Turkey, the committee recommended the following measures:
Advanced weaponry: Acquiring additional F-15 fighter jets, refueling aircraft, drones, and satellites to strengthen Israel’s long-range strike capabilities.
Air defense systems: Enhancing multi-layered air defense capabilities, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow systems, and the newly operational Iron Beam laser-based defense system.
Border security: Constructing a fortified security barrier along the Jordan Valley, which would mark a significant shift in Israel's defensive strategy despite potential diplomatic ramifications with Jordan.