With Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara protecting Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) Director Ronen Bar from being fired until the Qatargate probe into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aides is concluded, any change in running the agency may be on hold for a month or more.
But with everything that has happened between Netanyahu and Bar recently, his days are clearly numbered, even if he can hang on for a few weeks or months.
So, who are the leading candidates to replace him? The Jerusalem Post surveyed a variety of former Shin Bet officials.
"M" the leading candidate?
The leading candidate is “M,” the most recent deputy chief of the Shin Bet, who stepped down in late 2024 only to return in early February to assist in the negotiations with Qatar over the hostages held by Hamas. M is known as an “Arabist” and has served at all of the key levels of the agency.
Former senior Shin Bet official Arik Barbing and other former senior officials from the agency said he is fully qualified. The fact that Netanyahu put him on the hostage negotiation team could signal that he also has the prime minister’s support. If he wins the “race,” much of the current controversy may fade since he is supported by all parties.
M almost quit after October 7, given that he was deputy chief at the time, but after an initial probe, he was found not to be personally responsible any more than many other officials throughout the defense establishment. He then went on to run the agency’s massive interventions during the war. M would become the second religious leader of the agency after Yoram Cohen.
"R," a former deputy chief
“R” is probably the next in line after M, having been deputy chief of the Shin Bet before Bar himself and having barely lost a close race to Bar to be chief back in 2021. He also headed the important Jerusalem and West Bank Division.
Senior agency sources said R has a broader worldview regarding technology and the collection and analysis of intelligence issues. Some Shin Bet sources also pointed out that R was involved in major defense situations during 2014’s Operation Protective Edge.
After retiring from the agency, R served in key positions in the Defense Ministry’s MAFAT weapons development directorate. R returned to assist the Shin Bet Southern Command during its massive operations after October 7. In addition, some sources said that R is more beloved and inspires more social cohesion among the rank and file of the agency.
But R may have burned some bridges with an interview he gave Channel 12’s Uvda following Operation Protective Edge. He claimed the agency had warned the IDF and Netanyahu that Hamas was ready to fight but was ignored. This won him some enemies, including some who held him responsible for failing to sound the alarm about Hamas loud enough in 2014.
In the post-October 7 atmosphere and with intensified tensions between the prime minister and the agency, Netanyahu may be even less likely to take someone with a record of pointing fingers at the political echelon.
According to Barbing, what sets these two top candidates apart from any others is that they are both Arabists who can speak Arabic the way Arabs do and understand their mentality and culture in a deep way because they have “tasted” that culture up close in the field, not just studied it from afar.
"S," the current deputy
“S” is the current Shin Bet deputy chief. He also gets top marks from senior agency sources, but given that he has only been deputy chief for a few months and that both M and R served full terms there, each of them would seem to have an edge over S.
However, he has served in top positions in both operations and analysis, including heading the anti-terror division, so Barbing said he would still be a strong candidate. S grew up religious, though he is not observant today.
Barbing said any of the above three candidates could help lead the Shin Bet back to a focus on classic intelligence and away from an overemphasis on tactical operations and the use of technology while deemphasizing human intelligence to some extent, something he says happened under both Bar and Nadav Argaman.
Meir Ben-Shabbat, former NSC chief
More of an outside shot but still in the running is Netanyahu’s former National Security Council chief and senior Shin Bet official, Meir Ben-Shabbat. The prime minister wanted to make him the next chief after Nadav Argaman in 2021 but was forced from office by Naftali Bennett, who appointed Bar.
While Ben-Shabbat has some support within the agency because he was a senior official there – serving as a division head in three different capacities – there are many in the agency who have threatened to resign if he is appointed. For them, he is seen as too close and compliant with Netanyahu’s requests, and there are concerns that he would promote Netanyahu’s political agenda over professional considerations.
Normally, he also would not be in the running because he was not a deputy chief, but some former Shin Bet officials say that his time as NSC chief and his unusual strategic acumen keep him in the running.
Shalom Ben Hanan, former senior official
Shalom Ben Hanan retired from the agency in 2022 after 27 years at the equivalent rank of a major-general in charge of two different whole divisions compared to IDF ranks. The two divisions were Jerusalem and the West Bank and the Counterintelligence Division. He has also made some public statements criticizing Bar for injecting the Shin Bet into certain political sagas, saying the agency must stay razor-focused on security issues only.
Such a position could find favor with Netanyahu. However, Ben Hanan has been affiliated with Reichman University, which might give the prime minister pause because of its left-center politics but could boost broader support for him. Still, he was not a deputy Shin Bet chief, so he would be an unconventional choice.
Barbing expressed that whoever heads the Shin Bet next must hold their ground and speak truth to the political echelon about security threats even if the agency’s views are inconvenient politically.
He said this is a challenge because, unlike the IDF, where a variety of top officials interact with the political echelon beyond the IDF chief, only the Shin Bet director himself interacts directly with the political class.