The American view of “the day after” deals exclusively with who will control Gaza after Israel attempts to dismantle Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, creating a path to two states for a two-people’s solution. That scenario unrealistically envisions a ceasefire ending the war and the return of all the hostages. The much more plausible scenario is a Hamas insurgency emerging every night from yet undiscovered tunnels, killing Palestinians who work with any other governing force.
However, to advance US national security interests and safeguard American taxpayer dollars, the “day after” must also be about coming to terms and reevaluating America’s relationships with erstwhile allies, Egypt, Qatar, Lebanon, and Turkey. Each, in their way, has supported, facilitated, given sanctuary to, or enriched themselves by their relations with American designated terrorist organizations, i.e., Hamas, Hezbollah, and, according to our State Department, the world’s leading state sponsor of terror, Iran. The blatant anti-American and antisemitic incitement and indoctrination are endemic to all of them, including Jordan.
It is estimated Egypt has allowed 100 to 150 tunnels to cross under its border from Gaza into the Sinai (Philadelphi Corridor) for the transport of an unlimited supply of weapons, explosives, missiles, and advanced excavation equipment for digging tunnels. More noteworthy, the Egyptians allowed most weapons to enter Gaza overland through the Rafah crossing in broad daylight.
The Egyptian military and local civilians have profited from this illicit commerce, directly aiding an American-designated terrorist organization that is attacking our most important strategic ally in the Middle East while violating the Israel-Egypt peace treaty, of which America is a party.
The US has leverage with Egypt, as Washington gives Cairo over a billion dollars a year for its military. The Biden administration opted not to use that leverage when Palestinians clamored to leave the Gaza Strip because they were placed in harm’s way by Hamas. Wouldn’t $1.3 billion a year taken from Egypt and given to Taiwan or Ukraine be a much better investment of American taxpayer dollars supporting democratic allies?
Qatar’s nefarious behavior includes financially supporting and giving sanctuary to terrorists of all stripes, including the current leaders of Hamas. As just one example, Hamas terrorist Khaled Mashal, who is living in Doha, two weeks ago called for Palestinians to return to suicide bombing, which in the past has maimed and killed Americans.
Yet, instead of demanding the extradition of Hamas leaders in Qatar, the administration praises Qatar as an indispensable facilitator to speak with terrorists. In addition, Qatar has spent billions of dollars to influence American university students and faculty, inculcating an Islamist and anti-American perspective.
AN EXCELLENT place to begin our recalibration is to suspend Qatar’s undeserved designation as a major non-NATO ally. Without the threat of losing our support, the leaders of these supposed allies shamelessly oppose us at home and abroad, in word and deed, while we bankroll and protect them. Being trusted and supportive of terrorists should be condemned, not rewarded.
The US has a substantial military base in Qatar, al Udeid. The Qataris believe it is indispensable to America, so they have us over a barrel. Here is a thought: the friendlier United Arab Emirates, who have crossed the Rubicon and made peace with Israel, would be happy to build us another base at their expense.
How about we use that leverage to push the Qataris to be a little less cozy with the Iranians, that lovely state sponsor of terror with so much American blood on its hands, whose Iranian-controlled militias target American soldiers in Iraq and Syria? And while we are at it, how about pushing the Qatari-controlled Al-Jazeera media empire to tone down its anti-American rhetoric and stop pretending to be fooled by the Qataris who claim it is an independent organization?
Lebanon is a failed state under the thumb of Hezbollah
Republican and Democratic administrations got nothing in return for our annual $140,000 million to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), which is either complicit or impotent to act against the Iranian-controlled Hezbollah terror organization. Nothing is demanded of the LAF, but for that amount of money, they can, at the least, stop working with Hezbollah. They should report back to the US over UNIFIL and Hezbollah violations of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which demanded Hezbollah disarm and leave southern Lebanon.
The Jordanian curriculum teaches hatred of the US, Jews, and the West. America gives $1.45 billion to Jordan; without it, the Hashemite monarchy would fall – enough with the excuses. If you want our money, you must change your indoctrination.
Turkey is the last player in the rogue’s gallery of Middle Eastern ‘frenemies.’ President Erdogan has transitioned Turkey from a reliable linchpin of NATO, a secular democracy that had good relations even with Israel, to an Islamist state. One of the most infamous episodes representative of the contempt Erdogan has for NATO and America was his purchase of the advanced Russian anti-missile system S-400. Turkey supports Hamas and allows its leaders to plan terrorist attacks from Turkish territory.
Whoever is the next administration needs to take this seriously and pressure these nations to move in a direction that benefits our national security interests. I am not pollyannish. We must deal with authoritarians throughout the Middle East, as there are few other choices. But we should begin by differentiating authoritarians who help us from those who work against our interests and start using our leverage to advance our priorities, including advancing human rights.
Without a strategy for the Middle East, which I doubt the next administration will waste political capital on, Iran will become a nuclear weapon’s threshold state with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and others soon to follow in a nuclear arms race – the worst thing for our security.
The writer is the director of the Middle East Political Information Network (MEPIN) and Mandel Strategies, and is the senior security editor for The Jerusalem Report. He regularly briefs members of the US Congress and their foreign policy aides on the Middle East.