Dr. Shai Har-Tzvi discussed the rising threats from Jordan over the past year, the kingdom’s difficult conflict with Iran, and how Israel should respond despite Queen Rania's harsh statements in an interview with Maariv on Saturday.
With tensions escalating along the border with Jordan, particularly after the recent attack at the Dead Sea, where terrorists crossed from Jordan and were neutralized, injuring two Israeli soldiers, Dr. Shai Har-Tzvi, head of the International and Middle Eastern Arena at the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS) at Reichman University, offered insights into the current situation in Jordan.
“The shooting attack near the Dead Sea, carried out by two terrorists who crossed from Jordan into Israel disguised as Jordanian soldiers, reflects the escalation of threats from the Jordanian side over the past year,” Har-Tzvi began. “This follows the attack at the Allenby Crossing five weeks ago by a Jordanian citizen, where three Israelis were killed, and Iran’s efforts, along with terrorist groups, to exploit the long and partially porous 308-kilometer border between Israel and Jordan to smuggle weapons into the West Bank.”
“Since the war began, Iran has intensified its attempts to destabilize the kingdom due to its geostrategic importance and its role as a key ally of the pro-American camp in the region. Iran's belief that Jordan played an active role in thwarting the missile and drone attack on April 13 has further heightened tensions between the two countries."
“Ever since King Abdullah ascended the throne nearly 25 years ago, relations between Jordan and Israel have been strained. It was Abdullah who, two decades ago, warned of the danger posed by Iran’s efforts to establish a ‘Shi’ite Crescent’ across the Middle East and expand its influence in the region,” Har-Tzvi noted. “Iran is trying to exploit Jordan’s ethnic divisions, especially the fact that nearly half of the kingdom’s 11 million residents are of Palestinian origin or refugees from Iraq and Syria, to fuel anti-regime sentiment and protests against Israel.”
“This has been evident in the recent protests in Jordan following the assassination of Sinwar, where chants of support for Hamas and calls for revenge against Israel were heard. In last month’s Jordanian parliamentary elections, the Islamic Action Front Party, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, won 31 seats, about one-fifth of the lower house. Even though the parliament has limited power, largely dependent on the king, this is still one of the party’s most significant achievements, partly reflecting the population’s growing sympathy for Hamas.”
“Since the war began, King Abdullah has been trying to balance between internal pressures and Jordan’s strategic and security interests. To do this, he has adopted a dual policy.”
“On one hand, he allows opposition groups to ‘let off steam’ by permitting protests, highlighting Jordan’s humanitarian aid to Gaza, recalling the Jordanian ambassador to Israel, and allowing harsh criticism of Israel from senior officials, including Queen Rania and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi. On the other hand, the king avoids taking concrete steps that could fundamentally damage relations with Israel.”
Don't stir the pot
“For decades, especially since the signing of the peace agreement, Jordan has been a cornerstone of Israel’s regional security framework,” Har-Tzvi emphasized. “In light of this, Israel’s policy towards Jordan should focus on two main objectives: maintaining the peace agreement and deepening multi-dimensional strategic cooperation.”
“To achieve this, the government must act on multiple fronts. Diplomatically, Israel should work to restore relations with Jordan’s leadership, particularly given the strained ties between Prime Minister Netanyahu and King Abdullah.”
“At the same time, Israel must be sensitive to Queen Rania’s statements despite their harshness. Additionally, it should avoid declarations that could be perceived in Jordan as reviving the idea of Jordan as an alternative homeland.”
“On the security front, Israel should reinforce its forces and enhance multi-dimensional security along the eastern border, investing the necessary resources. Economically, Israel must offer Jordan as much assistance as possible, given its economic hardships and water shortages, which are fueling public discontent.”
“Practically, Israel should agree to Jordan’s requests to extend water agreements for longer periods instead of renewing them in short increments. Finally, in the religious realm, Israel should avoid statements that could undermine King Abdullah’s special status as the custodian of Jerusalem’s holy sites, as this could weaken his legitimacy and, in a worst-case scenario, ignite a religious conflict.”