The Iranian-backed Houthis have suffered some setbacks in the battle for Marib in Yemen. Meanwhile, it looks like there is increased attention on their drone attacks and an Iranian drone attack on a ship off Oman.
For the new Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, these will be part of his first moves in the region. He will be shoring up support for Hamas and also may travel to Baghdad.
We can determine some of Raisi’s objectives by looking at Iranian media connected to the IRGC. The media outlets claim Marib will soon be taken by the Houthis. That would be a setback for Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, Hamas had a delegation in Iran for Raisi’s inauguration. The Houthi leadership has accused Saudi Arabia and the UAE of being “tools of the United States.” Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was quoted by Iran’s Tasnim News Agency as saying, “The Palestinian resistance is on the side of Iran.”
This is an attempt by Iran to increasingly influence and control the Palestinians and use them to attack Israel. Tehran already did this in May and will likely prod the Palestinians toward more attacks.
Iran likes to use proxies and have others die for it in its regional wars. That is why Syrians, Lebanese, Iraqis and Yemenites all are pushed by Iran to fight, while Iran’s regime strangles its own people at home and profits off all the instability, terrorism and suffering.
There is no country Iran is involved in that has become wealthier and more stable as a result. Most places where Iran empowers militias, such as Iraq, barely have electricity, and Lebanon is bankrupt.
Iraq’s foreign minister is coming to Iran soon, according to Iranian media outlets. Iraq also may soon host Raisi during his first foreign trip, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported. According to this report “the Iraqi foreign minister also invited Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to attend this important security meeting with officials from Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.”
The meeting may take place in Iraq, and if the Iranian president attends, this would be an important regional meeting. According to this narrative, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi wants to solidify Iraq’s role in the region. Iraq has also had discussions with Egypt and Jordan about regional security and normalizing more regional ties with Syria.
If Iraq were to host the Saudis, Turkey and Iran, as well as representatives of Kuwait, Jordan, Syria and the EU, this would be a major milestone. It remains to be seen what will happen.
The inclusion of Syria would be a major signal to the region. Iran wants the US to leave Iraq, and this would also bolster attempts by Turkey, Iran and others to remove the US from Syria.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s recent speech has been heavily quoted by Tasnim. This is because he is trying to redraw the deterrence equation with Israel and pretend Hezbollah is equal to Israel.
Hezbollah has taken over much of Lebanon and now conducts its foreign policy. Nasrallah wants to demonstrate to Israel that Hezbollah’s recent rocket fire can deter the IDF from escalating the situation.