On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will return to the White House as the US’s 47th president. His reentry into office coincides with a Middle East crisis that is unraveling layer by layer, revealing its deep complexities.
Israel’s Intelligence and military community are currently focused on dismantling two key terrorist arms of Iran’s regime – the Houthis and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) – while also preparing for a decisive and forceful response against Hashd al-Shaabi militias in Iraq.
With the neutralization of Iran’s terrorist proxies underway, the next strategic step will likely involve confronting the terror-driven mullahs at the heart of the Iranian regime itself.
Strategically, the objective is to diminish the regional influence of this rogue regime, which not only poses a direct threat to Israel but also acts as a destabilizing force and a persistent obstacle to peace in the turbulent Middle East.
Furthermore, Iran’s aggressive actions have created significant challenges for the Persian Gulf and global security.
Under Israel’s doctrine of deterrence, this urgent and dangerous threat must be neutralized, even if it requires targeting Ali Khamenei himself, whose role parallels that of notorious figures such as Osama bin Laden, Qassem Soleimani, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Hassan Nasrallah, and Yahya Sinwar. Eliminating such a profound threat would likely enhance security rather than compromise it and have no adverse security consequences.
Just as Syria’s dictator fled to Russia under coordinated efforts involving Turkey and MIT, it is not implausible to foresee the collapse of Ali Khamenei, the world’s leading trafficker of arms to Islamic terrorists and the mastermind and architect of proxy wars destabilizing the region.
In the coming few weeks, Israel will intensify its efforts to weaken and dismantle Iran’s IRGC, MOIS, and Quds Force. However, operational challenges persist, including interference from the Biden Administration, which has historically generated obstacles. Administrations led by Carter, Obama, and Biden have repeatedly sought to shield the outlaw mullahs’ regime, aligning themselves on the wrong side of history.
In contrast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with a pragmatic and strategic vision, continues to erode Iran’s regional influence by dismantling its Shi’ite crescent terror proxies, destroying its axis of evil disguised as Islamic resistance, and amplifying international pressure on the regime’s malignant activities – while cutting off its weapons supply to terrorists.
The existential threat posed by the Islamic Republic extends beyond Israel to the United States, as Iran’s terrorism, nuclear ambitions, and axis of evil jeopardize US interests and its allies across the Middle East.
Both the CIA and Mossad, supported by patriotic Iranian analysts, recognize that the Islamic Republic’s survival depends on internal suppression and a robust propaganda machine. However, the regime is teetering on the brink of collapse, with a severe political crisis looming.
Trump’s return brings renewed hope for an international coalition against Tehran. Driven by economic interests, European nations may break ties with the mullahs and align with the emerging powerful US-Israel alliance, seizing the opportunity to pursue regime change in Tehran.
Khamenei, Iran’s cowardly, war-mongering, and delusional dictator, continues to portray himself as God’s representative on Earth. Through grandstanding, self-aggrandizement, and religious theatrics, he perpetuates chaos and fuels aggression across the Middle East. However, Trump acknowledges that Netanyahu’s resilience has redefined the regional power dynamics and the roles of key players in the Middle East. These two leaders of the US and Israel recognize that the tyranny in Iran holds no divine legitimacy. With a deep understanding of Middle Eastern history, they view Khamenei as a shrewd manipulator and a cunning villain who cloaks himself in false sanctity while embodying terrorism.
Sanctity and terror cannot coexist
Based on security assessments, Israel is compelled to eliminate the region’s primary threat, neutralizing Tehran’s ambitions for dominance and its instigation of Islamic terrorist groups against Israel.
Israel, for its survival, must see this crisis through to the end.
Just as the collapse of apartheid and communism in the 20th century brought hope and joy to the world, the fall of the Shi’ite mullahs’ Islamic caliphate in Tehran would be equally transformative and liberating in the 21st century—an inspiring vision even to imagine.
Trump will stand alongside Netanyahu to counter regional threats. One by one, they must strip Tehran’s dictator – who falsely claims to be the self-appointed leader of the Islamic world – of his levers of power and crush his expansionist ambitions. If Netanyahu and Trump miss this golden opportunity, the issues that have plagued the region since 1979 will only repeat themselves for the next half-century.
Arab nations across the MENA region are increasingly seeking stronger ties with Israel and alliances with the US to shield themselves from Tehran’s provocations and aggressive policies. Following the Abraham Accords, Mossad has not only strengthened its presence in the Persian Gulf but also extended its reach within Iran.
As long as Khamenei remains in power, his agenda will remain rooted in chaos, crisis creation, and malicious actions, threatening peace and stability in the Middle East and beyond. A decisive and strategic response is critical to counter the threats posed by his regime and its terrorist proxies. To dismantle Khamenei’s spider web, it is imperative to eradicate its transnational terrorist network (TTN) while stripping the mullahs of their nuclear bomb card.
Failure to act now will lead to a tumultuous and challenging future. The virus of the Shia mullah is infecting the entire region.
Security assessments make it clear that Israel must address the region’s primary threat by neutralizing Tehran’s ambitions for regional dominance and its support for Islamic terrorist groups targeting Israel. For Israel’s survival, this crisis must be resolved decisively.
THE RENEWED Trump-Netanyahu alliance is certain to draw the attention of Russia and China.
Russia, eager to resolve the Ukraine crisis and focus on rebuilding itself, and China, prioritizing economic influence and regional policy expansion, are unlikely to jeopardize their relationships with Israel and the US for the sake of the terror-driven mullahs in Tehran. Similarly, the European Union will have no choice but to adapt to the evolving geopolitical landscape, aligning with efforts to reduce regional tensions and weaken Iran’s regime.
It is crucial to remind Trump and Netanyahu that Iran’s theocratic dictatorship is a decayed and rootless entity, unsustainable in the long term. Since 1979’s Khomeinist revolt, this regime has survived crises and chaos, clinging to power with a mafia-like core determined to preserve its authority and wealth at any cost. Even the regime’s loyalists recognize the lack of a viable future, while the Iranian people understand that this outdated system does not belong in the 21st century – its time has passed and its collapse is inevitable.
The regime’s inherent hostility toward the modern world, coupled with the awakening of a vibrant, informed, and determined Iranian society, underscores that the groundwork for change is steadily forming.
To support this momentum, Trump must address the role of US-affiliated Persian media, ensuring these platforms no longer serve as propaganda tools for Tehran. These media outlets currently act as obstacles to the aspirations of the Iranian people and must be aligned with the cause of freedom and reform.
Trump and Netanyahu are stepping into an era where the chains of the mullahs’ oppressive apparatus are beginning to shatter, and Iran’s toxic power structure – steeped in crime and corruption – is on the brink of collapse. The regime of criminals holds no regard for Trump or Netanyahu, having made multiple attempts to assassinate them. Today, the Iranian people and the broader Middle East eagerly await a new breath of fresh air to break free from the suffocating grip of this failing theocracy.
The writer is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East studies researcher based in Washington, with a particular focus on Iran and ethnic conflicts in the region. His latest book is The Black Shabbat, published in the US. You can follow him at erfanfard.com and on X @EQFARD.