If coronavirus vaccine is found, over-demand will quickly cause shortages

The alternative, meanwhile, is to adhere strictly to the Health Ministry's instructions on the issue to prevent infection.

By MAAYAN HARONI/MAARIV
A street cleaner wearing a face mask sanitizes trash cans at a sidewalk, as the country is hit by an outbreak of the new coronavirus, in Beijing, China (photo credit: REUTERS/CARLOS GARCIA RAWLINS)
A street cleaner wearing a face mask sanitizes trash cans at a sidewalk, as the country is hit by an outbreak of the new coronavirus, in Beijing, China
(photo credit: REUTERS/CARLOS GARCIA RAWLINS)
Other than panic, thousands of deaths and massive preparation by health systems worldwide, the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak over the past two months has also marked the opening of a new race in medical research and development worldwide, in an attempt by laboratories to curb the mysterious virus through developing a vaccine.
Today, there is no specific treatment for coronavirus, and most of the patient care is therefore based on the patient's clinical condition, such as assisting with breathing and lowering fever.
Despite the race for a vaccine, the reality does not ideally match the lab complexity involved in such a sensitive and even dangerous procedure to the pace of global infection.
The fact that the virus in its new form (after undergoing a mutation that makes it even more dangerous) is new and foreign to the scientific eye makes the task that much more difficult, with clinical knowledge of the new disease incomplete, to say the least.
Furthermore, it is also unclear what are the risk factors for developing a serious illness. According to the information now, the disease appears to be more severe among adults and people suffering from damage to immune system and chronic illness. However, in terms of how the virus spreads, it is not yet known how it can be transmitted, can anyone who has not developed symptoms infect others, how long can the virus survives in the air, does it stick to objects or the like. Naturally, such facts do not make it easy to deal with either.
On the other hand, according to the published data from China, there is evidence that in most cases it is a minor illness. Up to 20% of diagnosed patients develop complications and the mortality rate is about 2%. In this context, it should be noted that the prevailing professional assumption is that not all patients in China are diagnosed.
So where does this place us? Although a number of groups around the world are working tirelessly to develop a vaccine, according to the Israeli Ministry of Health, no effective vaccine can be expected soon, despite the publication of articles claiming of new vaccines being published in the coming months, a year and so on. Either way, they all speak of at least a few months.
Less encouraging is the thought that if and when a vaccine is developed, the global concern about the dimensions of the spread will cause over-demand and shortages of vaccines. The alternative, meanwhile, is to adhere strictly to the Health Ministry's instructions on the issue to prevent infection.