Yoni Ben Menachem, a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, cautions that Turkey is emerging, in his view, as an increasing strategic threat to Israel. He argues that the policies led by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan go far beyond public rhetoric. According to him, “Turkey is the new Iran.”
He claims that Ankara is quietly working to establish a new Sunni bloc in the Middle East, based on the assumption that the Iranian regime will weaken or even collapse. Such a development, he says, would create a regional vacuum following the decline of the Shi’ite axis. Turkey, he adds, aims to fill this vacuum alongside Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan, in a move intended to reshape the regional balance of power.
Ben Menachem's assessment corresponds to steps taken by Ankara in recent years to position itself as a regional leader, partly by taking an active role in defending the Palestinian cause and opposing Israeli interests in the region.
On Sunday, Erdogan accused Israel of carrying out atrocities against Palestine and Lebanon and threatened potential military action against the Jewish state, similar to its past interventions in Karabakh and Libya.
Ankara has so far been cautious about approaching southern Syria, due to concerns over a direct confrontation with Israel
These latest comments, along with the already strained relations between Ankara and Jerusalem, could lead the two regional powers to sever ties completely, as MK Amichai Eliyahu suggested in his response to Erdogan on Sunday.
Alongside the diplomatic front, Turkey is also strengthening its military presence in Syria, in coordination with Ahmed al-Sharaa. However, Ben Menachem notes that Ankara has so far been cautious about approaching southern Syria, due to concerns over a direct confrontation with Israel.
Ben Menachem believes these steps reflect far broader regional ambitions that extend beyond Syria or Iran alone. According to him, Turkey seeks to expand its influence across the Middle East, including around the issue of Jerusalem and in the international arena, developments that Israel must take into account already now.
Regarding Turkey’s leadership, Ben Menachem described Erdogan as the most dangerous figure from Israel’s perspective and also identified Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan as another key power player in Ankara. He noted reports of tensions between the two, linked to Fidan’s alleged ambitions to eventually succeed Erdogan, though he added it remains unclear whether such a scenario will materialize.